BCS Championship Preview: Team Strategies and Odds

The BCS Championship Game between FSU and Auburn is on Monday. The hype is over and it is almost time to play.  Well the hype is not really over as we have two and-a-half more days to hype this game.

Some are predicting that this will be the highest scoring affair in BCS Championship history given both teams offensive prowess. Bovada as the over/under set at a whopping 68 points. This game is also epic as it is the BCS’ final championship before it is replaced by the playoff system. It is a battle between one team that seems to have fate on its side, given its upset victories through out the season and a team that simply steamrolled its competition.  It is a  battle between destiny and domination.

It is no secret what Florida State is going to do.  They are going to try and dominate Auburn through the air, as it has been well documented that Auburn’s pass defense is their weakest ability. They allow 260 yards per game through the air. Meanwhile, Jameis Winston has three star receivers in Kelvin Benjamin, Rashad Greene and Kenny Shaw. That is three big time play makers who will burn Auburn through the air.

Auburn will try and simply slow the pass game of FSU.  They know they are going to get burned on some plays, but they their key will be their defensive line and the blitz in stopping the pass not its secondary.  Auburn will need to use what it does have on defense and use it D-Line to put major pressure on Winston.  They need to do this all day. Winston may be a Heisman winner but he is only human and will make mistakes if he gets hit enough and is surrounded by enough Auburn defensive players.

If FSU has a weakness it is its run defense. Auburn knows how to stop the run and they know how to run. Alabama and Missouri, who both have better run defenses than FSU, could not even stop the Tigers on the ground.  They ran for 296 yards against Alabama and 677 yards against Missouri. They also will not abandon the run game just because FSU gets a few stops.  They will continue to shove the ball down FSU’s throat and will get some big yards on the ground.

Florida State opened up in the odds as 9.5 favorites, but have since dropped to between -8 and -9 point spread since then. The odds are not all that close and many pundits and talking head have Florida State controlling this game, wire to wire.  However, as hot as Auburn is right now, do you feel completely comfortable betting against them?