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Spurs vs Warriors Shifts to Oakland

ginobili_manu640The Golden State Warriors will be hosting the San Antonio Spurs for Games Three and Four with the series tied 1-1. The Spurs are very lucky not to be going in down 2-0 in the series. The Warriors had a 16 point lead with 4:00 to go in Game One before the Spurs went on a furious rally to tie the game and send it to overtime. Stephen Curry had 44 points in that game.

Going into Game Two, many wondered whether or not the Warriors could recover from the heart-breaker in Game One. Curry and his team answered that question with an emphatic “yes” beating the Spurs with no problem to even the series. The heavy underdog when the series began, the Warriors now look like a good bet to take the series. Curry is becoming an NBA Superstar before our eyes and Andrew Bogut is resurrecting his career also. If they can get some production out of All-Star David Lee, then watch out.

The odds have swung mightily since Game One when the Spurs were an 8.5 point favorite. Bookmaker has them a 2.5 point underdog in Game Three. Some of that is of course due to the switch to Oakland. But not all of it is. Home court might be worth three points. So switching from one to the other might account for six points, not 11.

Moneyline in Game One had the Warriors +425 and the Spurs -550. For Game Three the Warriors are -145 and the Spurs +125. That is a huge swing. People who put money down on the Warriors to win the series before Game One are likely doing a happy dance right about now.

Of course, a Spurs win in Game Three to swing the odds heavily back in their favor. And that is not out of the question. These Spurs have been through the playoff battles many times. They know how to win road games and they know how to come back when it looks like they are down.

The Warriors haven’t been this far very often. They also don’t have much experience playing as the favorite. But, they did manage to close out the number three seed Denver Nuggets in six games in round one, and many felt the Nuggets would easily beat them. The Nuggets were only one seed down from the Spurs.

Game Three will be critical as the winner takes the lead in the series. It will be a huge game for the Warriors because they can keep home court advantage going into Game Four.

Our pick: Take the Warriors -2.5 and also bet the over. The over/under is 202.5 These games have all been very high scoring so far. No reason to think that will change in Game Three. If you can find a prop bet on Curry scoring 30, bet the over on that too.


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