NFL Week 12 lines: 5 games to bet the favorite
Looking at this NFL Week 12 schedule, there are a litany of games where the favorites make sense. Here are the five best of those.
5. Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The first of our road favorites on the list. While the Chiefs haven’t covered in each of their last two games, this is a much smaller spread to deal with. Also, while the Buccaneers are considerably better than the Carolina Panthers and Las Vegas Raiders, the scheme matchup could be disastrous.
Tampa Bay loves to blitz. Patrick Mahomes loves to beat the blitz. Bruce Arians wants to take deep shots. Tom Brady can’t throw deep. Swallow the points.
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4. Seattle Seahawks (-5) at Philadelphia Eagles
How could anybody think the Eagles stay within five points? Carson Wentz leads the league in turnovers and generally looks completely shattered as an NFL quarterback. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson is on pace for 50+ touchdowns. Also, Seattle’s defense has largely been terrible this season but has improved during the last six quarters. Maybe it’s a mirage, maybe not.
The bottom line, though, is Philadelphia can’t play, and the Seahawks can.
3. Miami Dolphins (-7) at New York Jets
The Jets haven’t won a game, and while they did cover last week, it was about as back-door as it gets. This week, the Dolphins come to town after losing to the Broncos. They’ll be very motivated, as a loss would be both crushing to their playoff hopes and very embarrassing.
Miami is a bit overvalued because the offense has been bad since Tua Tagovailoa stepped in, but defense and special teams will be enough here.
2. New Orleans Saints (-6) at Denver Broncos
Even without Drew Brees, the Saints are significantly better than the Broncos. Denver has one of the worst offenses across the NFL, led by a quarterback in Drew Lock with seven passing touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
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New Orleans is on the road, but there won’t be fans in the stadium. Taysom Hill won’t light up Vic Fangio’s defense, but he won’t have to. Twenty points ought to cover the spread.
1. San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
Love this line. The Rams are at home and getting Nick Mullens, who has played some bad football since taking over for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo. Los Angeles has one of the league’s best defenses — especially against the pass — and it’s going to make life miserable for Mullens and the depleted 49ers on Sunday afternoon.
