Daniel Jones’ rise is due to demand more than talent

Daniel Jones is a fine individual. He’s a decent enough quarterback. There’s no way his talent screams first round.

All those things are true, even if they are increasingly harsh. Jones is entering the draft as a solid career with the Duke Blue Devils. A starter for three seasons, Jones showcased enough ability to raise some eyebrows. He has decent mobility in and outside of the pocket, he was mostly durable (he suffered a broken clavicle early in the 2018 season but only missed two games) and he helped Duke maintain a respectable program on the gridiron.

At 6-foot-5 and 221 pounds, Jones’ frame was always going to intrigue pro scouts. Add in the fact that he doesn’t turn 22 years old until late May, and there are reasons why he should legitimately be worth pouring over the tape.

Still, his overall play the actual traits attached to him are lacking. Watch Jones, and you don’t see an arm that translates into making the tough throws — think corners and outs — at the next level against elite athletes. Furthermore, Jones isn’t very accurate, completing a paltry 59.9 percent of his throws at Duke. Last year, as a redshirt junior, he hit on 60.5 percent of his attempts. If you’re thinking that maybe his accuracy numbers are down because he’s constantly going deep, his yards per attempt stats are 6.6, 5.9 and 6.8 respectively since 2016. Not large by any metric.

In fact, Jones is the product of the NFL’s pass-happy rulebook. Teams know that without a quarterback, they have no shot of winning. This wasn’t the case in the 1990s and early 2000s, when franchises were very successful with Neil O’Donnell, Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer and others running the show. Now? A team would have no chance with the 2019 equivalent of those players.

Jones represents hope for a fanbase, head coach and general manager. Instead of the New York Giants not having a plan after Eli Manning, they now have Jones to sell. Instead of the Washington Redskins having to think about Case Keenum and an injured Alex Smith, there’s a shiny new prospect who can hopefully develop into a star.

Of course, the problem is that Jones will be massively overdrafted because of hope, and not reality. There’s little on tape to suggest that Jones is going to be a top-10 quarterback in the NFL. If a team is going to be spending a first-round pick on him, especially in the top half of the round, he needs to have that sort of upside. If a team believes he’s going to be Andy Dalton and takes him anyway, that’s a disaster.