Fiesta Bowl Preview: Which UCF will Show Up?

UCF will look to upset Baylor with the run game and Blake Bortles passing

The UCF Knights are a big underdog in the Fiesta Bowl against the Baylor Bears. And there is good reason for this. In the last three games they had a tough time beating the Temple Owls 39-36 in a game where they pulled off a miracle finish, the USF Bulls 23-20 in an almost miraculous finish as well and the SMU Mustangs 17-13. None of those three teams went to a bowl game this season. So they do not instill a lot of confidence going into a major bowl.

However, like a lot of teams, the Knights tend to play to the level of the competition. Which means what? It means put Baylor on the field with them and they will show up. The Knights went to Happy Valley and knocked off the Penn State Nittany Lions in front of over 100,000 PSU fans. They also went on the road and handed the Louisville Cardinals their only loss of the season or they would be getting ready for the Florida State Seminoles in the BCS National Championship Game right now. We saw what the Cards did to the Miami Hurricanes the other night in the Russell Athletics Bowl. The only Knights loss was by three points to a 10-2 SEC team, the South Carolina Gamecocks, or the Knights might be getting ready for FSU right now.

UCF did not back into this game. Yes, the AAC is no SEC or PAC 12. But put hem up against the Big 10, ACC or Big 12 and they do not look that weak. The Rutgers Scarlet Knights were a mediocre team in the AAC but they covered against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the Pinstripe Bowl.

Baylor on the other hand is getting a lot of love from the so-called experts. But they were tied at halftime against the Texas Longhorns in their last game and Texas did not put up much of a fight against the Oregon Ducks in the Alamo Bowl. The game before that one they beat the TCU Horned Frogs, who are not even bowling this year, by only three points 41-38. The game before that they were hammered by the Oklahoma State Cowboys 49-17. In other words, why all this confidence?

While Baylor did have some impressive wins, such as a walloping of the Sugar Bowl Bound Oklahoma Sooners 41-13, they have not looked like that same team as of late either.

Bookmaker has UCF +17 -110 and Baylor -17 -110 ATS. Moneyline is UCF +485 and Baylor -650. Over/Under is 70.5 with over and under both -110.

We like UCF +17 -110 and the under -110. We think the Knights may be a little better than the oddsmakers are giving them credit for and the Bears may be a bit overrated by them.