AFC Win Totals for 2013
Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens aren’t expected to repeat as Super Bowl champions, but can they win nine games?
With kickoff still more than three months away, players, coaches, fans, and bettors alike are sat twiddling their thumbs patiently, or not so patiently, waiting for the NFL season to begin.
This past week, sportsbooks provided a distraction, releasing the Win Totals for 2013. Bettors can now ponder whether to back the over or under on all 32 teams.
Here, BettingSports takes a look at the Win Totals in the AFC. Click here for the Win Totals in the NFC.
Read on to find out what we think about how teams are going to fair this season, beginning with the defending champions.
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2012: 10-6 | 2011: 12-4 | 2010: 12-4 | Strength of Schedule: .535 (5th)
o8.5 (-115) | u8.5 (-115)
The defending Super Bowl champions aren’t having much luck at the moment, what with key players exiting the club, a lucrative home opener spoiled by a schedule clash with the Orioles, and facing one of the toughest strength of schedule slates in the entire league. Who’d be a defending champion, hey? Still, recent form suggests the Ravens are good to cover the over on 8.5 wins. [Super Bowl: 22/1 | AFC: 10/1]
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2012: 6-10 | 2011: 6-10 | 2010: 4-12 | Strength of Schedule: .473 (tied 26th)
o6.5 (+110) | u6.5 (-140)
What have the Bills done to get better this season? The answer is not much. That’s why bookmakers expect the upstate New York side to struggle to cover 6.5 games. That and the fact that Buffalo hasn’t won seven games since 2008. [Super Bowl: 125/1 | AFC: 50/1]
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2012: 10-6 | 2011: 9-7 | 2010: 4-12 | Strength of Schedule: .508 (12th)
o8.5 (-130) | u8.5 (EVEN)
After a solid season that saw a second consecutive playoff appearance for just the second time in franchise history, the Bengals are a team on the way up. The problem though is that they play in the rough-and-ready AFC North. The odds makers like them to cover 8.5 but that could be a tough task, especially if Cleveland improves. [Super Bowl: 33/1 | AFC: 15/1]
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2012: 5-11 | 2011: 4-12 | 2010: 5-11 | Strength of Schedule: .492 (21st)
o6 (-115) | u6.5 (-115)
Sure, a 5-11 record sounds terrible but make no mistakes, the Browns had a decent season last year. During the first half of the season they were in practically every game until the closing moments. Improvement on that makes the Browns a good bet to cover six games for the first time since 2007. [Super Bowl: 100/1 | AFC: 40/1]
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The over/under for the Denver Broncos is at 11.5 games. Can Manning and Co. repeat last season’s success?
2012: 13-3 | 2011: 8-8 | 2010: 4-12 | Strength of Schedule: .430 (32nd)
o11.5 (-105) | u11.5 (-125)
Denver caught everybody by surprise last season. Anybody that tells you otherwise has some very fashionable rose-tinted glasses. Bookmakers expect the Broncos to win 11 or less this season, but take a look at that strength of schedule. Although the Chiefs should be better in the AFC West, the Raiders and Chargers could still be duds. But then again, the NFC East could be back to its bruising best this year too, which will make for four tough outings. [Super Bowl: 13/2 | AFC: 14/4]
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2012: 12-4 | 2011: 10-6 | 2010: 6-10 | Strength of Schedule:Â .473 (tied 26th)
o10.5 (-115) | u10.5 (-115)
After a disappointing end to the season, Houston will be looking to get back on the horse as quick as possible. That strength of schedule looks like motivation enough to take the Texans covering 10.5 games, especially with the Titans and Jaguars still looking horrendous. However, games with Denver, San Francisco, Seattle, New England, Baltimore, and intra-division games with Indianapolis suggest that schedule isn’t as soft as it first appears. [Super Bowl: 18/1 | AFC: 6/1]
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2012: 11-5 | 2011: 2-14 | 2010: 10-6 | Strength of Schedule: .451 (30th)
o8.5 (-105) | u8.5 (-125)
As with Denver, nobody could have expected Indianapolis to fare as well as it did last season. Nobody. But can Andrew Luck have a sophomore year to match? Odds makers don’t think so, with the Colts expected to finish with eight or fewer wins. Nine wins does look doable with the schedule the Colts will face though. [Super Bowl: 40/1 | AFC: 18/1]
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2012: 2-14 | 2011: 5-11 | 2010: 8-8 | Strength of Schedule: .508 (tied 12th)
o5 (-115) | u5 (-115)
Everybody expects another disaster of a season for Jacksonville, whose highlight may be playing in front of a sell-out crowd at Wembley Stadium in London. The sensible bet would be taking the under on five games, but with Tennessee (twice), Buffalo, San Diego, Arizona, Oakland and Cleveland on the slate, there are wins to be had. Well, maybe. [Super Bowl: 200/1 | AFC: 75/1]
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With Andy Reid at the helm, bookmakers expect the Kansas City Chiefs to win more than seven games this season.
2012: 2-14 | 2011: 7-9 | 2010: 10-6 | Strength of Schedule: .473 (tied 26th)
o7 (-130) | u7 (EVEN)
In many ways, the Chiefs are in a winless situation. With Andy Reid at the helm, Alex Smith taking over QB duties and a revamped lineup, there’re a lot of expectations riding on the team. Does the team have what it takes to shoulder those expectations? We’ll find out shortly. In terms of the over/under, most will take the over but it’s worth remembering, this is a team that has finished with seven or less wins in six of the last nine seasons. [Super Bowl: 50/1 | AFC: 25/1]
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2012: 7-9 | 2011: 6-10 | 2010: 7-9 | Strength of Schedule: .520 (tied 7th)
o7.5 (-135) | u7.5 (+105)
Miami had its moments last season. Ryan Tannehill looked competent, plus a little bit more, at quarterback and the defense was a beast. All signs point upwards for the Dolphins and the signing of Mike Wallace could bear fruit in a big way. But, the Dolphins face the AFC North and the NFC South – which is shaping-up to be a tough troop this season – as well as New England (twice) and Indianapolis. Life won’t be easy in South Florida this year. [Super Bowl: 40/1 | AFC: 18/1]
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2012: 12-4 | 2011: 13-3 | 2010: 14-2 | Strength of Schedule: .508 (tied 13th)
o11.5 (-105) | u11.5 (-125)
Take a look at New England’s record over the past three years. Looks like the Patriots are due an 11-5 season, right? Better take the under on 11.5 games then. Of course, New England has finished with fewer than 12 wins in just two of the last nine seasons in which Tom Brady has been the starter (ignore the 2008 season in which he was injured). Although Bill Belichick and Co. haven’t splashed out this offseason, the Patriots have earned enough respect to go for the over here. [Super Bowl: 8/1 | AFC: 3/1]
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2012: 6-10 | 2011: 8-8 | 2010: 11-5 | Strength of Schedule: .496 (tied 19th)
o6.5 (+110) | u6.5 (-140)
Ah, the Jets. What can we say about the Jets? Well, a lot, but do we really want to? New York has been on a downward spiral for a couple of years, and this offseason has seen more drama. However, without the Tim Tebow circus in town, Big Green may have a shot at covering 6.5 games, despite what the bookmakers think. They just need to make Mark Sanchez (yes, he will be the starter) comfortable. Hmm! [Super Bowl: 100/1 | AFC: 40/1]
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Odds makers expect the Oakland Raiders to win less than six games. Looks like more misery in the ‘Black Hole’.
2012: 4-12 | 2011: 8-8 | 2010: 8-8 | Strength of Schedule: .469 (29th)
o5.5 (+120) | u5.5 (-150)
Without a winning season since 2002, there’s little to expect that to change this season. But can the Raiders win six games? Strength of schedule will be in their favor, except it won’t. The AFC West will be improved this year (at least Kansas City will) as will the NFC East (on the Raiders’ schedule) while Houston, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh will be tough to beat. The under’s looking more likely. [Super Bowl: 150/1 | AFC: 66/1]
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2012: 8-8 | 2011: 12-4 | 2010: 12-4 | Strength of Schedule: .492 (tied 21st)
o9 (-115) | u9 (-115)
Pittsburgh’s disappointing season has some Steel City fans concerned. A health Ben Roethlisberger could calm those nerves. The Steelers are a winning team, that’s for sure, but can they win nine? That might be a tall order with the NFC North and AFC East on the schedule, but if the Steelers get the job done in the division, nine games are conquerable. Of course, winning in the AFC North is easier said than done. [Super Bowl: 25/1 | AFC: 11/1]
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2012: 7-9 | 2011: 8-8 | 2010: 9-7 |Strength of Schedule: .457 (31st)
o7.5 (EVEN) | u7.5 (-130)
If we’ve learned anything from the Chargers in recent times, it’s never trust the Chargers. But surely a team that has won eight or more games in nine of the last 11 years can be trusted to cover 7.5? Don’t count on it. The Chargers have done nothing this offseason to suggest they’ll be better than last year, and they’ll be up against improved teams in Kansas City and Miami, as well as the NFC East. [Super Bowl: 50/1 | AFC: 20/1]
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2012: 6-10 | 2011: 9-7 | 2010: 6-10 | Strength of Schedule: .488 (23rd)
o6.5 (-105) | u6.5 (-125)
Two 6-10 finishes in three years suggest it will be hard for the Titans to cover 6.5 games. There’s little to suggest this is a better team than last season, which petered out quickly, and will likely do similar this year. There’s a reason the bookies are favoring the under here. [Super Bowl: 100/1 | AFC: 50/1]
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How many games will the Super Bowl favorite San Francisco 49ers win? Will the highly touted Seattle Seahawks prove the better team in the NFC West? And will the NFC East return to its dominance? Tomorrow we’ll bring you the NFC Win Totals for 2013.
Notes
Win Totals for the NFC are available here.
Full Strength of Schedule data can be found at ESPN.
All odds – including over/under and Futures – have been supplied by Bovada.
The 2013 NFL Season kicks-off on Thursday, Sept. 5, with the Baltimore Ravens traveling to the Mile High City to take on the Denver Broncos.
