The Great 2013 Streak: The Heat or the Blackhawks?

Just as the Miami Heat keep winning so do the Chicago Blackhawks.

On Wednesday, both teams won with the Blackhawks (21-0-3) winning their 11th consecutive game and extending their point streak to its 30th game with a nail biting 3-2 victory over the Colorado Avalanche (8-10-4).

Expectations are rising for both teams and the debate will continue until one team snaps the streak.

Patrick Kane edits

Blackhawks Patrick Kane

For the Blackhawks, they have six games to go surpass the record 35 games while the Heat are just under the halfway point for the record 33 games.

The math tells you the Blackhawks are closer but maybe not.

Keep in mind the following was written on a 22-game streak. Now the probability is likely even higher.

According to USA Today’s Kevin Allen, the Blackhawks’ run has an off-the-charts probability of occurring again anytime soon.

Allen spoke with Richard Clearly, a mathematical sciences professor at Bentley University who put the team’s streak into a greater context.

According to Cleary’s estimates, the Blackhawks’ 22-game run of at least one point has the probability of occurring once every 700 years.

Why is it so unlikely? Cleary said, “It’s the ‘start of the season’ thing that really makes it unlikely. The chance of some team getting points in 22 games in the row at some point in the season is much higher.”

To help answer the Heat or Blackhawks question, Cleary added the following:

He “based the probability of the streak on the fact that a top NHL team earns a point in about 75% of its games. The math, he says, works out to a probability of it happening between one and two times every 1,000 years.

“Randomness is a lot streakier and clumpier than people expect,” he said.”

But what about the Blackhawks making it through all of the regular season, even in this abbreviated one, to not have a loss in regulation?

Cleary says there is a one chance out of 1,000.

The Blackhawks next game is on Friday versus the Avalanche. Wednesday’s win was tough enough and in this one, the team will be without forward Patrick Sharpe.

He suffered a shoulder injury and left Wednesday’s game in the third period. He’s been scratched already for Friday and beyond that it’s uncertain.

Center Andrew Shaw went down in the second period; his status is uncertain for Friday.

Then there’s Marian Hossa who didn’t play on Wednesday also from an upper body injury. He was close to playing that night and is expected to return on Friday.

Now for the Heat (45-14).

They have now won 16 straight games, playing lights out. LeBron is having fun and the team seems unstoppable.

He’s also been sharing a little love via Twitter with his leading-scorer counterpart at the Blackhawks, Patrick Kane.

Heat Forward LeBron James

Heat Forward LeBron James

James tweeted on Wednesday, “Hey Chicago Blackhawks, u guys are AWESOME!! .”

Kane responded with, “@KingJames Back at you LeBron. Keep rolling.”

Friday will be a big night as the Heat will also try to keep its streak alive. They will play the Philadelphia 76ers  (23-37).

So who’s likely to keep winning their regular season games between these two teams?

The good math professor believes it is the Heat and gives then a one chance in 170 (this means each game is is seen as an independent event) or near one in 200 when considering the challenging road games.

Here’s a bigger question: What are the chances the two streaks could continue until each team sees its season’s end? Cleary gives that a one in 250,000.

He added, “Better than the chances of winning the lottery, but not very likely.”

But more realistic stat questions are, what’s the likelihood of the Heat winning the Championship? +130

And what about the Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup? +450

 

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