Best NBA Over Win Totals

The NBA over/under win totals were released a few days ago. Here they are, team by team, for the entire league. (All lines courtesy of Bovada sportsbook.)

Miami Heat: 61

Los Angeles Lakers: 59.5

Oklahoma City Thunder: 59.5

San Antonio Spurs: 53.5

Boston Celtics: 50.5

Indiana Pacers: 50.5

Los Angeles Clippers: 49.5

Denver Nuggets: 48.5

Chicago Bulls: 47.5

Memphis Grizzlies: 47.5

Philadelphia 76ers: 46.5

New York Knicks: 45.5

Dallas Mavericks: 44.5

Brooklyn Nets: 44.5

Atlanta Hawks: 42.5

Utah Jazz: 42.5

Minnesota Timberwolves: 39.5

Milwaukee Bucks: 35.5

Portland Trailblazers: 35.5

Golden State Warriors: 34.5

Phoenix Suns: 33.5

Cleveland Cavaliers: 31.5

Detroit Pistons: 31.5

Toronto Raptors: 31.5

Washington Wizards: 31.5

Houston Rockets: 30.5

Sacramento Kings: 30.5

New Orleans Hornets: 24.5

Orlando Magic: 23.5

Charlotte Bobcats: 22.5

 

Best Over Bets This Season

Minnesota OVER 39.5 Wins

Ricky Rubio’s knee is still recovering from a torn ACL, but there’s no reason the Wolves should finish below .500 this season. They showed a massive defensive improvement under coach Rick Adelman last year, and cleared away some of the most troublesome players on the roster (Michael Beasley, a black hole of offense, and Wesley Johnson, not a real NBA player) to sign tough, hardworking players like Brandon Roy and Andrei Kirilenko. Heath is the big question mark with this team, but with a legitimate MVP candidate in Kevin Love and a more solid supporting cast, the Wolves should far exceed this low total.

Atlanta Hawks OVER 42.5 Wins

Everyone is assuming that because the Hawk lost Joe Johnson they’re going to magically stink and fall out of the playoff race. Not true: Josh Smith is entering a contract year, and could truly have a monster season, while his supporting cast is as solid as ever. The East is weak, and there’s going to be a few surprise teams contending for a playoff spot. I think Atlanta is one of them, and I think they easily win more games than this.

New Orleans Hornets OVER 24.5 Wins

Why, exactly, is a team with Anthony Davis and Eric Gordon so heavily underrated? This team was inexplicably terrible last season (OK, not so inexplicably; they had Chris Paul torn away from them) but they dramatically changed the look of the franchise in the offseason by landing the consensus number one player (Davis) and a promising shooter (Austin Rivers) while also landing Ryan Anderson, who had a historically great season shooting from three last year. Here’s my question though. Davis was widely considered to be one of the best basketball prospects since LeBron James. If he truly is that good, then how can you set the total so low? Sure, there will be growing pains, but if the Hornets really added an elite player as Davis is projected to be, they should blow away this total.

Denver Nuggets OVER 48.5 Wins

The Nuggets are going to be a blast to watch this season, and I think this is finally the year they translate their up-tempo, electric style of play into a rock solid win total. This team has traditionally been a streaky one, but a frequent playoff team; people forget that last season this scrappy Denver squad had a legit shot at upsetting the Lakers, and with the huge addition of Andre Iguodala their defense will only be better. If JaVale McGee can keep his head on straight and Arron Afflalo can stay healthy, this team is going to be downright ferociously athletic and impossible to defend.

Chicago Bulls OVER 47.5

This line is obviously low because of the iffy status of Derrick Rose, but this team showed last year that they can and win big even without their best player. We know Rose will be back at some point; all the Bulls have to do to meet and exceed this total is to scrap hard until he returns. They showed last year that they can do that.