College Football Movers & Shakers: Week 4
With a rare win over LSU this weekend, Mississippi State improved its standing with bookmakers.
Online sportsbook Bovada released its latest round of college football futures on Tuesday, serving up an insight into how Las Vegas currently sees the footballing landscape.
While it’s still a close race at the top of the futures list, a noticeable change has taken place in the wake of Week 4; Alabama (4-0, 1-0 SEC) is now considered the favorite to win a national championship with odds of 13/2.
Meanwhile, last week’s top-placed team, Florida State (3-0, 1-0 ACC) has slipped into a tie for second place alongside Auburn (3-0, 1-0 SEC) and Oklahoma (4-0, 1-0 Big 12). All currently sit at 15/2.
Elsewhere, there’s been plenty of noteworthy movement. Here’s a look at some of the teams making positive and negative movement in the eyes of the bookmakers.
Moving On Up
Michigan State / Ohio State
The much maligned Big Ten enjoyed a much better run of things in Week 4, with only Michigan coming up short in non-conference competition and with Indiana scoring a big upset over Missouri.
The conference’s biggest winners this weekend though were the combo of Michigan State (2-1, 0-0 Big Ten) and Ohio State (2-1, 0-0 Big Ten), both of which saw their odds close from 33/1 to 20/1.
The bookmakers appear to be hesitant to pick a leader out of the pair, but with conference lurking just over the horizon, it shouldn’t take long to see which school has the best chances.
It’s worth noting that Nebraska and Wisconsin also saw their odds shorten this weekend.
Current Odds: 20/1
Mississippi State
On July 1, Mississippi State (4-0, 1-0 SEC) was assigned 150/1 odds of winning a national championship. That number shortened to 100/1 following Week 1 of the season. Now it’s shortened a lot more.
The Bulldogs began a run of three straight against ranked opponents with a 34-29 victory on the road at LSU on Saturday, shocking those in attendance at Tigers Stadium and impressing the bookmakers in the process.
Right now Dan Mullen’s side has seen its odds move to 40/1. With Texas A&M and Auburn on tap over the next fortnight, can the team from Starkville continue to defy the odds?
Current Odds: 40/1
Marshall
Outside of the Power Five conferences, just four undefeated teams remain; BYU (4-0), Notre Dame (3-0), Cincinnati (2-0, 0-0 ACC) and Marshall (4-0, 0-0 C-USA).
The least appealing of those has to be the Thundering Herd, but the side from Huntington, W.Va., has made an impact on the bookmakers this weekend, so much so that 200/1 odds have been slashed to 100/1.
Make no mistake about it, Marshall remains a (very) longshot but with a remaining schedule made up entirely of league games, if the Herd was to go undefeated it would certainly make an argument for a shot at the title. Of course, going undefeated is a big ask, but then again, this is the team that went 7-1 in Conference USA play last year.
Current Odds: 100/1
The Downward Spiral
Oregon
A narrow win over Pac-12 strugglers Washington State didn’t sell Oregon (4-0, 1-0 Pac-12) to the bookmakers this weekend.
While Marcus Mariota did his Heisman candidacy no harms, throwing for 329 yards and five touchdowns, the Ducks were less than dominant at a time when Alabama and Auburn both picked up significant wins. As a result, Oregon’s national championship odds stretched from 7/1 to 9/1.
By no means is this the end of the road for the side from Eugene. Quite the opposite really. Oregon will have its chances to impress, and providing it does, will remain a contender. For now though, the knee-jerk reaction is that the West Coast side might not be as good as its SEC counterparts.
Current Odds: 9/1
Louisiana State
Louisiana State (3-1, 0-1 SEC) entered Week 4 with 18/1 odds of winning a national championship. That loss to Mississippi State saw those odds slide to 50/1.
In all likelihood, a one-loss SEC team has a good chance of heading to the College Football Playoff, which means LSU is still a potential contender. The problem for the Tigers though is a familiar one: scheduling.
Les Miles’s side still has to play Alabama and Mississippi at home and Auburn and Texas A&M on the road. Right now, all four of those schools are ranked. Add to that a road trip to Gainesville and Arkansas and it’s hard to see LSU remaining a one-loss side.
Current Odds: 50/1
Florida
If LSU is likely to find it hard to take home a national championship, Florida (2-1, 1-1 SEC) will find it all but impossible.
Gator title hopes were doused in Week 1 when their game with Idaho was cancelled due to weather. Those hopes took a big dent when it took triple-overtime to defeat Kentucky in Week 3. This weekend’s loss to Alabama, which saw the Tide cruise to victory in the second half, all but eliminates Will Muschamp’s side from contention.
Of course, Florida could run the table and move on to the SEC Championship Game. A win in the title game would be the absolute minimum the side would need to be considered for the College Football Playoff, but right now that looks far beyond a pipedream, as advertised by odds falling to 100/1.
Current Odds: 100/1
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