Josh Allen represents the ultimate risk in the NFL Draft
The NFL Draft is not for another three months, but the coverage around it is already starting to ramp up. Last week, we had the East-West Shrine Game, a precursor to the more popular Senior Bowl down in Mobile, Ala. this week.
At the Senior Bowl are both Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen, a pair of quarterbacks who are both expected to be early picks in the first round of the 2018 draft. While Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen are both expected to go 1-2 in terms of signal callers, Mayfield and Rosen are jostling for position as that third quarterback who with a great few months, might even push the top duo.
While Mayfield might draw attention for his past antics while at the University of Oklahoma, it is Allen who has the draft world buzzing. Allen, who many believed would be a top-three overall pick before the college season began, struggled at the University of Wyoming this season. Still, at 6-foot-5 and 237 pounds, the youngster continues to tantalize NFL scouts. This week, Allen’s performance in Mobile has been uneven, but according to Lance Zeirlein of NFL.com, Allen is still turning heads.
“He’s been hit or miss, but I still love the talent,” said an NFC executive. “There just aren’t many guys who play in the league who are his size and throw it like he does. They just go early.”
The big red flag on Allen has to do with his accuracy, which has simply not been present throughout his time in college. In 2016, the prospective franchise quarterback threw for 3,203 yards with 28 touchdowns, but completed only 56 percent of his throws. This season, Allen against hit on just 56.4 percent of his attempts, while the touchdowns dwindled to 16 and the yards to 1,812, albeit in three fewer games. As for yards per attempt, the drop-off was steep, going from 8.6 to 6.7.
All that said, the big arm and the huge frame are going to bring some teams to the table. It would be shocking if Allen fell out of the top 10 picks, especially with the Cleveland Browns, New York Giants, Denver Broncos and New York Jets all desperately needing a long-term fix at the sport’s most important position.
Of those teams, look for Denver to take a long gaze at Allen. General manager John Elway was a strong-armed quarterback in his day, giving him something in common with Allen. Elway has also liked bigger quarterbacks ranging from Brock Osweiler to Paxton Lynch, and while neither has worked out for the Broncos, a clear type has emerged in the Elway regime.
Allen might have clear warts — and quarterbacks who are inaccurate in college are almost always inaccurate in the pros — but he has plenty of talent, and some team will take that big risk.
