Marlins Hammer Braves 9-0; Mets Roll Phillies 6-1
About a week ago, we pointed out that the Miami Marlins were a bettors dream. They are beasts at home and lambs on the road. If you want to make money betting on baseball, bet the home team in any Miami game and you’ll be in good shape. The Fish are now 12-14 on the season after Jose Fernandez shut down the N. L. East leading Atlanta Braves on Tuesday. That is a huge improvement over the last two years for the Marlins. But here is why you come to us, the Marlins are 10-4 at home and 2-10 on the road. So if you bet the Moneyline on the home team in every Miami game from Opening Day, you would be money ahead. You would be a winner in 20 of 26 games.
Now, are we suggesting the Marlins will continue to do this all season? While that would be all but impossible for them to continue to win at home at this pace, we can see them playing above .500 at home the rest of the way. And yes, they will likely figure out how to win a few road games the rest of the way and do better than winning one of every six, but two of every six seems about right and that still makes you a winner twice as often as a loser.
For whatever reason, Miami has a difficult time scoring on the road, but bring them to South Florida and the bats wake up. Giancarlo Stanton is having the best April of his career by far, and the majority of his damage has been done at home. Stanton leads the team with 8 HRs and 31 RBIs with one game still to go in the month. He has benefited greatly by having some hitters in the lineup to go with him such as Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Casey McGehee and Marcel Ozuna. Ozuna is hitting .302 in April.
Fernandez is fast becoming a Cy Young Award candidate. He looks like he is this seasons’ version of Matt Harvey of the New York Mets from last year.
Speaking of the Mets, they are also a big surprise in the N. L. East. They are not only winning games, but are winning them despite Harvey being out for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The Mets are the anti-Marlins at 15-11. New York is 8-8 at home and 7-3 on the road after last night;s 6-1 win over the Philadelphia Phillies. While 8-8 at home does a bettor little good, a 7-3 road record is one that can be used for an advantage. Will they keep this up all season? Who knows. But we suspect that if they do, then the home record will improve. So while betting on the Mets away from home could be dangerous, betting on them at home the rest of the way might be a good idea.
Carbon Sports has odds on today’s games:
Atlanta at Miami-Atlanta is -1.5 +145 and Miami is +1.5 -165 ATS. Moneyline has the Braves are -113 and the Marlins are +103. We like the Marlins +103 at home. They seem to get it done in Miami. Over/Under on the game is 7 with over -125 and under +105. We really like the over -125 here.
New York Mets at Philadelphia– The Mets are +1.5 -210 and the Phils are -1.5 +177 ATS. Moneyline has the Mets EVEN and the Phillies -110. We are going to go with the Mets Even here. O/U is 7.5 with over -115 and under -105. We like the under -105 here.