Mountain West Week 11 Preview
San Diego State shook up the Mountain West Conference last week after pulling off an incredible upset of previously ranked Boise State. Now the Aztecs have control off their own destiny in the MWC and will look to protect it against a underrated Air Force Falcons squad this week. Meanwhile, the Broncos will look to bounce back from the devastating loss and two other teams will try to remain included in the conference championship conversation. Here are the three big games in the Mountain West this week and who you should pick on the point spreads.
Boise State Broncos 7-2 (4-1) at Hawaii Warriors 1-7 (0-5)
BSU has a big spread to cover today
Coming off the tough loss last week, the Broncos should be able to pick the pieces with a win today against the 1-7 Warriors. The real question is can Boise cover the massive 29 point spread on the road?
Let’s face it. This year’s Boise State team is not the same BSC-busting squad that Kellen Moore captained. In fact, it really hasn’t been the same team without Moore at the helm. Doug Martin also went pro last year (with a high degree of success) and so the Broncos offense has suffered, ranking just 67th in points scored. However, the Broncos have reinvented themselves a bit, into a defensive minded team; a team that’s only allowing 14.4 points per game.
Meanwhile, the Warriors have defined the word inept this season. They rank below the top 100 in every major category and have been blowout in most of their games. However, the games where teams beat them by 20 or more all occurred away from the island, with the exception of Nevada. Hawaii has played much better at home and I expect the Warriors to compete and cover the spread today. Take Hawaii to cover +29.
Air Force Falcons 5-4 (4-1) at San Diego State Aztecs 7-3 (5-1)
The Aztecs now own the tiebreaker over the preseason favorite in the conference, but they still have plenty of work to do if they want to become Mountain West champions and it starts this week with Air Force.
The Aztecs are on a five-winning streak and feature one of the best running games in the country, but Air Force is also a squad that knows a thing or two about the run game. The Falcons option attack is an offensive style many teams don’t see anymore and its unclear how the San Diego State defense, which is allowing more than 25 points per game, will react.
If the Aztecs can limit the Falcons’ running game, it should be a fairly easy win for them at home. The Falcons are certainly a one dimensional offense and don’t have much of a defense to speak of. Since San Diego State found a way to hold the Broncos to fewer than 20 points last week, look for them to shut down Air Force and cover -7.5 points today.
Fresno State Bulldogs 7-3 (5-1) at Nevada Wolf Pack 6-3 (3-2)
Watch Fresno's balanced attack carve up Nevada's D
Fresno State and Nevada are two teams that may be often overlooked in the Mountain West coming over from the WAC last season, but make no mistake, both are very much in the hunt for a conference title in their first season in the MWC.
Having already defeated San Diego State, Fresno may be in line for the title if it can finish out the year with wins against Air Force and this week, Nevada. The Bulldogs have a premier offense, which is ranked 19th in scoring and best of all, it’s balanced. The Dogs average more than 300 yards per game through the air and more than 150 on the ground.
Nevada has just as potent on offense (14th in scoring), but the Pack are lacking on the defensive side of the ball, giving up more than 30 points per game. Look for Fresno to exploit that and win somewhat of a shootout today, while covering -3.5 points on the road.
