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Sharp Bettors on Seminoles

Of all the games on today’s NCAA Tournament schedule, the most interesting from a betting perspective is the game between Florida State and Florida Gulf Coast. It’s the proverbial “Pros” vs. the “Joes” as the sharps are all over FSU and the public loves Florida Gulf Cost.

It’s not often that underdogs receive the majority of the bets in a game, but FGCU has attracted two-thirds of the bets in the game. Yet, the line has moved from Seminoles -12 to FSU -13. That’s a blatant example of a reverse line move, so it will be interesting to see how the game plays out. Bettors have also been hitting the over pretty good.

Looking at Friday’s games, the so-called sharp bettors have made small stands on North Carolina, Dayton and Miami, Florida. Nothing as big as tonight’s FSU game, however.

In Thursday night totals, there is a bit of sharp action on Nevada to go under. Despite three-quarters of the bets being on the over, the line hasn’t changed. We’re seeing the same in the Purdue game, where there are more over bets but the total has dropped.

Friday’s Duke and Michigan games are seeing some smart money in totals. Duke has more under bets, but the total has climbed, while Michigan has more over bets, but the total has gone down.

Remember, the sharp bettors aren’t going to be right all of the time. Those who follow them are likely to be in the 50-percent neighborhood because the wise guys got the best of the line. Betting a game over 134 when the wise guys bet over 132 won’t yield the same winning percentage. Most wise guys are happy with anything in the 55 to 58 percent range to begin with. One thing you can do to improve your odds is have accounts at several different sportsbooks and bet into the best line.

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