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UCF vs Louisville is a BCS Bowl Playoff Game

The Knights have one big Road Upset this year already.

The Knights have one big Road Upset this year already.

It is only halfway through the college football season, but on Friday night we have a big game that is most likely going to decide a bid to a BCS Bowl game between the UCF Knights and the Louisville Cardinals. These two teams are head and shoulders above the rest of the field in the American Athletic Conference and the winner of the AAC gets an automatic BCS bid.

The game features two great quarterbacks in UCF’s Blake Bortles and Louisville’s Teddy Bridgewater. Bortles has led UCF to a victory at Beaver Stadium over the Penn State Nittany Lions and nearly pulled off an upset over the South Carolina Gamecocks before falling 28-25. Louisville behind Teddy Ballgame has wins over the Kentucky Wildcats and Rutgers Scarlet Knights on their resume.

The winner of the game would still have a few tough games left and could stumble, but they would have to stumble twice to lose the conference. That is not very likely. Louisville has already dealt with Rutgers, one of the toughest teams left in the AAC other than UCF. The Houston Cougars are still unbeaten in AAC play and would be the Cards toughest remaining test. Houston has to face UCF and Louisville on the road in back to back weeks and that is after facing a tough trio of the BYU Cougars, Rutgers and the suddenly dangerous USF Bulls who are the only other unbeaten team in AAC play. Houston should not have too much left in the tank when they get to UCF and UL.

While the Bulls are beginning to figure things out now that AAC play has begun, to ask them to beat the Cardinals and Knights is a bit much. So this game on Friday is the one that will decided the conference championship.

Let’s look at the Bridgewater vs Bortles match-up:

Bridgewater is 125 of 176 for 1872 yards. He has throw 18 TD passes and only two picks. Bortles is 92 of 142 for 1334 yards. He has thrown nine touchdowns and three picks in one fewer game than Bridgewater. On paper, the Cards look to have the advantage here, but keep in mind that the Knights have played one less game and have also played a tougher schedule.

Common opponents played so far include only the FIU Panthers. UCF beat them 38-0 in Miami while Louisville beat them 72-0 at home.

Bookmaker has UCF +13 -110 and Louisville -13 -110 ATS. Moneyline is UCF +425 and Louisville -550. O/U is 53 with over and under both at -110.

Interestingly, 62% of wagers ATS are on UCF and 75% of the Moneyline is also on the Knights.

We like UCF +13 but do not believe they will win the game. So take the Knights +13 and the Cards -550. Also we like the over -110.


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