Texans-Colts clash on TNF has major playoff impact

The Houston Texans need to win on Thursday night. So do the Indianapolis Colts.

The two AFC South rivals meet with first place on the line, both sitting at 6-4. It’s the rematch of a game from October, when the Colts escaped with a home victory.

Whoever wins should roll to the postseason. They’ll have a one-game lead in the division with five contests to play. They’ll also be the third seed in the AFC playoff picture, leapfrogging the idle Kansas City Chiefs.

If Indianapolis wins, the hammer-lock on the division is even more significant. Because of the aforementioned victory in October, the Colts would not only be up by a game over Houston, but they would hold the tiebreaker regardless of what happens moving forward.

If the Texans win, they would ensure a split of the season series and be up a game, although the tiebreaker wouldn’t be decided yet. The decision would come down to who has the best divisional record. If Houston wins, it would be 3-1 in the AFC South while the Colts would also move to 3-1. The remaining games? The Texans have both games left with the Tennessee Titans, while Indy hosts the Titans and visits the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 17.

Ultimately, whoever wins makes a significant move towards the postseason and knocks its rival into the depths.

So who wins? Tough to say. The Texans are at home and are the ore talented team. Deshaun Watson is coming off a terrible showing in Baltimore but remains one of the top-tier quarterbacks in the league. Against an average secondary, Watson could throw for major yardage despite Will Fuller V being out with a hamstring pull.

However, Indianapolis has a much better coach. Frank Reich has completely destroyed the Texans in each of their last two meetings, including a playoff game in the AFC Wild Card round last season. Indianapolis also has the best offensive line in football, giving Jacoby Brissett time to make plays and, as importantly, avoid mistakes.

Regardless of the victor, the game likely comes down to the fourth quarter. For the first time all year, the pressure will be heavy on both sides, knowing a win may mean a division title and a home playoff game, while a loss puts it on the brink.