The Sharp Report – June 18, 2014
Masahiro Tanaka had another impressive performance last night, and showed that he can field his position like few others in the league today.
I keep waiting for Masahiro Tanaka to show a kink in his game, and I am just not seeing one yet. In Wednesday night’s game, Tanaka was forced to make a few plays to first base and he handled it with ease. Tanaka has a follow through that allows him to end up in perfect fielding position after he releases the ball, this type of follow through was much more popular twenty to thirty years ago but is a rarity now.
A lot of gamblers have started to fade Tanaka, like I do with Verlander, but I’m not so sure you can do it with a guy that has yet to show flaws. We are witnessing a truly remarkable talent and the only thing that you can do as a gambler is throw him in a parlay or play him on the run line, I certainly don’t recommend fading this man.
Please refer to my first post in this series for a list of recommended sites to aid you in your handicapping.
6/18 Early Moves:
Here are some lines that were hit by sharp groups early enough this morning to make this report. I have not had time to research games myself, so I am not recommending that you try to find these numbers and tail the plays at this time. These are listed to show you what has happened so far this morning, always do your own research on these before following along.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies (LAD ML)
Key Line Move @ 9:30 pm EST (6/17)
Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins (Under 7.5)
Key Line Move @ 9:50 pm EST (6/17)
6/17 Recap:
Early Moves:
San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners (Under 7.5) – Win
Key Line Move @ 7:40 am EST
One swift early move here, and if you have been following along you notice that it is these moves that win at a higher percentage than the rest. I have to be honest with you, I was not on board with this move. Both pitchers have been pitching awfully, the only thing that looked like an under to me is the fact that San Diego has not been able to score at all lately (1.9 avg. in June).
Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays (Under 8) – Loss
Key Line Move @ 8:00 am EST
This was another case where the line moved early, and didn’t budge the rest of the day. The sharps were confident that this game would be a six or seven run affair. The Orioles’ Gonzalez has pitched extremely well against the Rays, holding an ERA under 4 over nine career starts. The Rays’ Bedard has been streaky against the Orioles, allowing only three runs in his first five starts against them but has given up 13 in his last four. Obviously, the groups were counting on the former. This game was a no play for me, too many unknowns and a lot of better games to play on the card.
New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals (Over 7 and STL ML) – Push and Win
Key Line Move @ 9:36 am EST and 7:30 pm EST
Groups hit this line over night to drop it to 7 from 7.5, once it hit the 7 it was hammered hard and stayed at 7.5 for the remainder of the day. The starters Niese and Wacha have a combined ERA under five when facing each other’s team, so I wasn’t too sure on the over push from the groups. What I did see, and absolutely LOVED, was the late strong move on the St. Louis money line. One hit late, giving the books no time to adjust or try to hedge. All day public money was coming in on New York since Niese has pitched well against St. Louis, the sharp groups just waited for the right number to hammer late. Wacha was not going to lose three straight games, there are pitchers who slump long and hard and then there are pitchers like Wacha, who come back with a chip on their shoulder.
Late Moves:
Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Indians (Over 9) – Win
Key Line Move @ 5:00 pm EST
The over here was a pretty safe play. Shoemaker has been bouncing back and forth between the bullpen and the starting role for the Indians and hasn’t done particularly well in either. Tomlin for the Indians got hit pretty hard his last time out against the Red Sox, and unlike Wacha in the write up above, Tomlin is a guy that you can bet against for his next few starts.
Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros (WAS ML) – Win
Key Line Move @ 6:50 pm EST
Another last minute move, that made me especially happy as a Nationals fan. In one of the better pitching match ups of the night, Keuchel of the Astros and Roark of the Nationals are two young up and coming pitchers to keep your eye on. This move did not come from my group and I was unable to confirm the reasoning behind it after reaching out to the guys who made the move. On paper, it actually looked like Houston was the right side, Keuchel was 6-0 with an ERA under 2 on the road coming in.
