AFC South: Week 12 Preview and Point Spreads

To paraphrase the great Denny Green, only the exact opposite, the Colts are NOT who I though they were. I expected them to put up a fight on Sunday; instead, they suffered one of the worst defeats in recent memory at the hands of the New England Patriots. The Houston Texans were on similarly shaky ground against the Jacksonville Jaguars, finally defeating their 1-8 opponent in overtime. I would be lying if I said I had a clue as to what was going on in the AFC South yesterday. Still, let’s look ahead together to what will hopefully be greener pastures for the division. The AFC South gets an early start this week, as the Texans take on the Lions on Thanksgiving Day.

Houston Texans (-3) at Detroit Lions, Thursday, 12:30 p.m. EST

I would love to take the Texans here, but they just played an overtime game on Sunday, mere days before they will take the field at noon on Thursday. That is not a lot of rest for a team that has been worked to the bone by the NFL’s schedulers this season. I don’t love that. However, Detroit’s defense leaves a lot to be desired. They showed marked improvement against the Packers on Sunday, but they still ultimately lost 24-20. “We just buckled,” Lions linebacker DeAndre Levy said after the game. “Even that last touchdown late in the game, we had a chance to make a play on it, we just didn’t make the play. That’s kind of been the theme for us this year, being in position and not finishing.”

Houston is not a team you want to let hang around. I think they cover here, but only just so. The Lions really aren’t that bad; it’s just that the Texans’ talent is overwhelmingly good.

Buffalo Bills (+3) at Indianapolis Colts, Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST

The Colts bandwagon fell apart mighty quick on Sunday as they were hopelessly overmatched by the New England Patriots, ultimately losing 59-24. “We knew we couldn’t come here and turn the football over and have a chance to win,” Colts interim coach Bruce Arians said after the game. “We’ve got a lot of rookies out there so every week is a learning experience. It was a bad learning experience.”

A visit from the woeful Buffalo Bills should be just what the Colts need to snap out of their post-Patriots funk. Think about it: a week ago, before they played the Pats, would this line have been so low for the Colts? Of course not. When everyone was still riding high on the Indianapolis bandwagon, this line would have been a touchdown at least. So what has changed in that week? Nothing. Only the perception of the Colts after a terrible loss. Take them at -3.

Tennessee Titans (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST

The Jacksonville Jaguars offense was humming on Sunday with Chad Henne at the helm. Even if Gabbert is healthy, it seems unlikely that he would reclaim his starting job; first round pick wideout Justin Blackmon finished the day with 236 yards and a touchdown.

“You’ve just got to always be prepared and ready to go in,” Henne said. “I’ve been preparing these last couple weeks like I’ve got to be the starter, and any time he (Gabbert) goes down, just jump in and hopefully not lose a step.”

I actually quite like the Jaguars here. What has Tennessee done this season to merit being a road favorite? At least Jacksonville seems to have found something resembling competence when Chad Henne is behind center. I think they keep the positive trend going here against the Titans.