The Sharp Report – June 26, 2014
Clay Buchholz took the mound for the Red Sox Wednesday night for the first time since being placed on the DL about a month ago with a hyper-extended knee.
If I were the GM of the Red Sox, I wouldn’t be bringing Buchholz back in this spot on Wednesday night. Seattle is going for the series sweep and has absolutely destroying Red Sox pitching, I would have waited for a home game against a team whose bats weren’t on fire. I guess he was thinking was that Buchholz couldn’t do any worse that what the current starters have been doing, and maybe him coming back would add a little spark. Who knows the reasoning, but I’ll tell you what, it gave me and a lot of others an angle on the game that I will discuss in detail below.
A great night was had by sharps all over the world last night, we needed it after a few days of getting our rear ends handed to us.
Please refer to my first post in this series for a list of recommended sites to aid you in your handicapping.
6/26 Early Moves:
Here are some lines that were hit by sharp groups early enough this morning to make this report. I have not had time to research games myself, so I am not recommending that you try to find these numbers and tail the plays at this time. These are listed to show you what has happened so far this morning, always do your own research on these before following along.
Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies (Under 7.5)
Key Line Move @ 8:40 am EST
Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers (Under 9)
Key Line Move @ 8:40 am EST
6/25 Recap:
Early Moves:
Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers (DET ML) – Win
Key Line Move @ 8:18 am EST
This line started in the mid 130’s and climbed up to -150 in some places before people saw value in the Rangers. I caught this late and did not play the Tigers straight, instead opted to put them into a parlay with the Reds. It was pretty easy to see that the Rangers would have a tough time winning here, they have only managed to put up 16 runs during their six game losing streak and it was unlikely that they would start scoring on Wednesday night. Tiger’s starter, Anibal Sanchez, came in sporting an ERA under two over his last six starts. Victor Martinez has a hot bat coming in and may be able to put up enough runs to beat the Rangers by himself.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Tampa Bay Rays (Under 7) – Win
Key Line Move @ 10:50 am EST
This was a popular move among several respected sharp groups, moving to 6.5 early before it started inching back towards seven as the public started hammering the over at a 70% clip. Davd Price was on the mound, looking like the ace that we all know he can be of late, allowing three or less runs in five of his last seven starts. The Pirates sent Charlie Morton to the mound, who has been great of late himself if you throw out his last start. Morton had allowed two or fewer runs in eight of his last ten starts coming in. The Pirates’ hot bats were of some concern with this move, but most sharps were confident that Price would be able to tame them and keep this game under the total.
Late Moves:
St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies (Over 11) – Win
Key Line Move @ 2:50 pm EST
I feel like a broken record with this move. Overs in Colorado are as close to a sure thing as there is in sports betting right now, Las Vegas is getting killed, sharps and the public both are all over these plays. The groups waited until the last minute to hammer this today so that the line didn’t go to 11.5 or 12, but believe me it was a move as soon as the line was posted, you can’t afford not to play these overs at this point. Having two pitchers making their major league debut made this even more of a no brainer, 70% of public action was on this as well. There really isn’t much to write about anymore with this move. Moving on.
Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners (Over 7) – Win
Key Line Move @ 6:30 pm EST
I was surprised that so many groups waited to move on this until 6:30 in the east, to me it came down to Clay Buchholz. Buchholz looked good in his rehab appearance and all, but that doesn’t mean much at all, the difference in batter talent between Triple-A and the majors is enormous. To me this is an awful place for him to make his first start back, the Mariners’ bats are on fire and the Red Sox are in danger of being swept in this series. The Red Sox are not scoring, so it is likely that Buchholz will be in a hole early and without being under pressure like that in a while it is very likely he will get lit up early and often. Before Buchholz was placed on the DL he was shaky at best on the road, I don’t see how he comes out and throws a quality game in this situation at all. My prediction is a 8-3 Seattle winner and an easy over.
