The Sharp Report – June 27, 2014
Adam Wainwright attempts to become the National League’s first 11-game winner this season as he and the Cardinals take on Josh Beckett and the Dodgers in what should be one heck of a game.
Thursday’s card wasn’t one to get too excited about as a handicapper, there were only ten games and angles to take advantage of were scarce. Shorter MLB cards usually means that the lines are sharper, and value is hard to find. While I wasn’t too excited looking over the card as a handicapper, I was very excited as a fan of the game to see the Wainwright/Beckett match-up. Both pitchers have been lights out most of the season and Wainwright has a shot to tie the Yankees’ Tanaka with a league leading eleven wins. I expect a very tight, low scoring game, and will have my popcorn ready for this one.
Please refer to my first post in this series for a list of recommended sites to aid you in your handicapping.
6/27 Early Moves:
Here are some lines that were hit by sharp groups early enough this morning to make this report. I have not had time to research games myself, so I am not recommending that you try to find these numbers and tail the plays at this time. These are listed to show you what has happened so far this morning, always do your own research on these before following along.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers (Under 7.5)
Key Line Move @ 3:45 am EST
Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants (Under 6.5)
Key Line Move @ 8:10 am EST
6/26 Recap:
Early Moves:
Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies (Under 7.5) – Loss
Key Line Move @ 8:40 am EST
This line opened at 7, poked up to 7.5 and then was absolutely hammered back down to 7 early this morning. The Marlins’ starter, Tom Koehler, has pitched decently of late but has not had much run support. The Phillies’ Cole Hamels is showing flashes of his old self and has only allowed four runs in the month of June. Hamels is having the same issue as Koehler in the run support category, which makes the under here a good angle to play.
Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers (Under 9) – Loss
Key Line Move @ 10:50 am EST
Bouncing around most of the day with a low of 8.5 and a high of 9.5, there were obviously conflicting groups on both sides of this line. I am not as pro over on Rockies’ games payed away from Denver, but still hesitate to pull the trigger on an under in any game that they are involved in. I didn’t understand this move at all and kept my clients far away from it. Colorado has allowed at least four runs in twelve consecutive games and the Brewers’ starter Wily Peralta is awful at home with an era over four. Both teams can obviously score, so I am shocked that the stronger move on this game was on the under.
Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants (Over 7) – Loss
Key Line Move @ 11:30 am EST
As always with this key number, it bounced between 7 and 7.5, and as I explained in an earlier post, it is statistically in your favor to bet in the direction that the line is moving in regards to the key number of 7. That probably wasn’t very clear, so here is an example: if the line is bouncing between 7 and 6.5 it is statistically in your favor to take the under, and if the line is bouncing between 7 and 7.5 it is statistically in your favor to bet the over. The Reds are averaging over six runs in their last fourteen games coming into Thursday night’s game and the Giants’ starter Ryan Vogelsong is without a quality start in his last four games. I think this number is too low by a run or two and had my clients jump on it early Thursday afternoon.
