2013 Home Run Derby Odds

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The MLB’s biggest and best sluggers will descend upon Citi Field and assault its fences with a barrage of long bombs on Monday, July 15 and since we know you’ll probably be watching, you might as well place a small wager on the evening’s festivities, especially considering there won’t be much action to take advantage of during the All-Star break. Here are the odds for each of the eight contestants, courtesy of Bovada.lv:

Prince Fielder (DET)

7/2

Chris Davis (BAL)

15/4

Bryce Harper (WSH)

5/1

Robinson Cano (NYY)

11/2

Yoenis Cespedes (OAK)

11/2

Carlos Gonzalez (COL)

15/2

David Wright (NYM)

15/2

Michael Cuddyer (COL)

9/1

While it may seem somewhat surprising that the league’s leader in homers, Baltimore’s Chris Davis, isn’t the overall favorite, it’s actually not all that shocking considering Prince Fielder is the two-time champion of the derby and is the defending champ as well. Even still, Davis does have solid odds at 15/4 to win it for the American League and with all four of its representatives in the top five odds-wise, it certainly looks like the AL should win as a team.

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After beating Jose Bautista 12-7 in last year’s final round, Fielder has earned his spot atop the favorites list and his experience in the contest makes him a good pick. However, Davis will be a popular pick at 15/4 and appears to have good value. Then again, hitting home runs during the regular season and hitting them in the derby is a bit different, as the pressure is solely on the man in the box as the only player on the field.

Robinson Cano is another player in this field who has overcome that pressure. The 2011 champion also looks to be a solid value pick at 11/2 and as the captain of the AL, will still be driven to shine in front of many of his hometown fans in New York.

Of course, David Wright is the real hometown hero at Citi Field. The New York Mets‘ third baseman has had another fine regular season, but with only 13 home runs on the year, it’s hard to imagine him knocking out a substantial number on the big stage. Though, at 15/2, you don’t have to risk too much to win a lot on him.

Then we have the two sluggers representing the Colorado Rockies, who you could call this year’s wild cards. Michael Cuddyer – a longtime solid hitter – has enjoyed a breakout season late in his career this year, but he hasn’t hit a ton of bombs (15)- even at Coors Field. Still, he could breakout in the derby just as he has this season and surprise us all. It would be a little less surprising if Carlos Gonzalez – who has belted 24 homers this year – performed well, but at 15/2, odds makers don’t seem that confident he will take home the top prize.

After looking at all the candidates, one thing is pretty clear: The competition is wide open. However, taking the odds into account and their applied value, we like Gonzalez at 15/2 as a longer shot and Davis at 15/4 as a solid favorite. Whoever you go with, be sure to enjoy the derby next Monday and the Mid-Summer Classic on Tuesday!

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