AFC playoff picture, Week 8: Patriots in total control

We’re almost halfway through the season, and the AFC playoff picture can come significantly into focus with the result of a single game on Sunday. Here’s how the standings look going into the weekend:

1. New England Patriots (7-0)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (5-2)
3. Baltimore Ravens (5-2)
4. Indianapolis Colts (5-2)
5. Buffalo Bills (5-1)
6. Houston Texans (4-3)
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7. Oakland Raiders (3-3)
8. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4)
9. Tennessee Titans (3-4)
10. Cleveland Browns (2-4)

The game with the most implications this week? Houston hosting Oakland.

The Texans can open up a 1.5-game lead for the final wild card spot while holding the key tiebreaker. Houston would have to be thrilled with its position, sitting only a half-game behind the Colts as well for the AFC South lead and a rematch in its building. Should the Raiders find a way to win, the wild card would suddenly become a jumbled mess.

For all the world, it appears the Patriots are going to have home-field advantage for something like the 84th time this decade. Between being a terrific team with a potentially historic defense — not to mention the combination of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady — and playing a D-II schedule, New England might not lose ore than one or two games all year.

However, the seeds directly behind the Patriots are going to be fascinating.

Kansas City could end up staying put as the No. 2 seed, but it is without Patrick Mahomes for at least one week and potentially longer. Without Mahomes, it’s hard to see the Chiefs beating the Green Bay Packers this Sunday or the Minnesota Vikings in a week’s time. This opens the door for the Ravens, who are on a bye. Baltimore, though, draws the Patriots at home next weekend.

Indianapolis has a favorable schedule moving forward. The Colts play their next three games against the Denver Broncos, Pittsburgh Steelers (away) and Miami Dolphins. You’ll notice none of those three teams are even in the picture above.

Finally, the Bills have a chance to earn some believers this weekend. The Philadelphia Eagles are coming to town and while they are only 3-4, they are widely seen as one of the more talented teams in the NFL. If Josh Allen and the rest of his cohorts can beat Philadelphia, the Bills will take a step towards being seen as a true contender, and not just a team that has pounded on the league’s worst thus far.