NFL free agency is more about not losing, than winning

Winners try to win. Losers try not to lose. Except in NFL free agency.

In a week from Monday, the NFL will allow tampering to go on. You know, the same tampering that has been going on behind the scenes for at least a week and probably longer. When that NFL free agency date comes, some teams are going to start throwing around crazy money in hopes of improving the roster, while others will sit tight and wait for the market to slowly die down.

In the world of NFL free agency, there are occasionally the franchise-altering gems. There are the Drew Brees’ and Peyton Manning’s of the world, guys who can instantly elevate a team from decent to leading contender. However, for the most part, players capable of that are never on the market. Their teams don’t allow for things to get that far.

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In short, teams are so often playing for the best available free agent, which almost never means actual best.

Last year was a perfect example. The Minnesota Vikings went out and won a bidding war for Kirk Cousins. They were able to topple offers from the New York Jets and Denver Broncos among others, landing Cousins for the unheard of price of three years and $84 million, fully guaranteed. Coming off a 13-3 season with Case Keenum at the helm, it seemed logical that Minnesota was the team to beat in the NFC, if not the entire league. The Vikings finished 8-7-1 and out of the playoffs.

In the world of free agency and literally billions of dollars being thrown around, the best move is often to find second-tier players who can help for a few seasons. In this class, there are a handful of names that are worth watching.

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Adrian Amos is a good, solid safety for the Chicago Bears. He’s not the same talent as Tyrann Mathieu, Earl Thomas or Landon Collins, but Amos can get the job done all the same. Paying $12 million per year for one of the first three names isn’t necessarily better than paying $6 million for the latter, even if the talent is slightly less.

At this time of year, it’s critical not to lose more than it is to win big. Rarely do teams walk out of free agency significantly better both in the short and long terms. However, it’s very common for franchises to get placed into cap hell because they were overly aggressive on players who don’t truly move the needle.