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The Sharp Report – July 12, 2014

Felix Hernandez

Friday night’s most anticipated pitching match up featured “King” Felix Hernandez of the Mariners against Jeff Samaradzija of the A’s.

Every day has a match-up that I look forward to watching, sometimes there are moves on the game and sometimes there are not. On Friday night, the match-up that I was looking forward to was the Seattle Mariners against the Oakland A’s as aces Felix Hernandez and Jeff Samaradzija squared off. In what seemed like a no-brainer under to me, sharp groups actually moved heavy on the over.

Given the sharps on the over, I was hoping for the number to raise to 6.5 or 7, but it did not budge. It was obvious the books and public sided with the under and the number opened and closed at 6.

Please refer to my first post in this series for a list of recommended sites to aid you in your handicapping.

7/12 Early Moves:

Here are some lines that were hit by sharp groups early enough this morning to make this report. I have not had time to research games myself, so I am not recommending that you try to find these numbers and tail the plays at this time. These are listed to show you what has happened so far this morning, always do your own research on these before following along.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants (Under 8)
Key Line Move @ 8:00 am EST

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Indians (Under 9)
Key Line Move @ 10:00 am EST

7/11 Recap:

Early Moves:

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants (Under 7.5) – Win
Key Line Move @ 8:22 am EST

The Diamondbacks have been receiving strong pitching performances of late and they have allowed a total of seven runs while winning three of their last four games. Combine this with the recent offensive struggles of the Giants, the fact that Tim Lincecum is on the mound for the Giants, and this move makes complete since.

The Diamondback’s starter, Mike Bolsinger’s best start came against San Francisco as he held the Giants to one run on five hits in a career-high 7 2/3 innings. The Giants’ starter, Tim Lincecum, he has allowed a total of one run and seven hits in his last three outings.

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Indians (CWS ML) – Loss
Key Line Move @ 8:25 am EST

This move was surprising to me as the Cleveland Indians own the best home record in the American League Central and the White Sox are coming off back-to-back crushing losses due to their awful bullpen.

The White Sox’s starter, Hector Noesi, had one of his best performances against Cleveland on May 28, when he allowed one run on five hits in a season-high 7 1/3 innings, which could have contributed to this move. The Indians’ starter, Corey Kluber, has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his last five outings and struck out 10 while yielding one run in 8 1/3 innings against Kansas City on Sunday.

I was not feeling this one at all, instead I opted for the under.

Late Moves:

Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays (Over 7) – Win
Key Line Move @ 4:11 pm EST

This move came down to one pitcher who has been brutal of late and one that has been inconsistent with his control which could bite him against a powerful line up in this game. This was a no play for me, not a strong enough angle, but here are the stats.

The Blue Jays’ starter, Mark Buehrle, is 0-5 in his last six starts and has surrendered seven home runs over that period. Buehrle came into the game with a 4.20 ERA against Tampa Bay lifetime. The Rays’ starter, Chris Archer, struggles with control, but has 94 strikeouts in 108 1/3 innings this season. Archer is 1-0 in two starts versus Toronto this season while giving up four runs in 12 innings.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers (Over 7.5) – Win
Key Line Move @ 4:23 pm EST

The Cardinals come into this game after suffering a 9-1 setback to Pittsburgh in the finale of their four-game series Thursday. The Brewers have lost a season-high five straight and nine of 10, with a seven-run eighth inning proving to be their undoing in a 9-1 loss to Philadelphia on Thursday.  These recent struggles for both teams and the struggles of Gallardo for the Brewers against the Cardinals made this over 7.5 a very popular move for a lot of sharp groups.

The Brewers’ starter, Yovani Gallardo, has struggled mightily versus St. Louis, posting a 1-11 career record with a gaudy 6.34 ERA and was recently dismantled by the Colorado Rockies.

Chris Sharp is a professional sports handicapper and daily contributor to BettingSports.com. He can be found on Twitter @CSharp_Picks and on his web site IvyLeaguePicks.com.

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