The Sharp Report – June 12, 2014
Masahiro Tanaka’s MLB career is off to an amazing start, on Wednesday night he and the rest of the New York Yankees took on the Seattle Mariners.
Welcome to The Sharp Report. In this daily report you will find out what some of the sharpest groups in the betting industry were on last night, some insight into why, and how the average or public bettor reacted. Whenever possible, I will add some moves that have already occurred for the day of the post so that you can try to find the same number to bet. I will keep my industry vernacular to a minimum in these posts, and I hope that you find the information is of use in beating your books. As the days go by, you will see trends that give you a glimpse into which games and at what time the sharpest bettors in the world move their money.
Always bet responsibly because even with the best information, market analysis, and handicapping skills, you are guaranteed to have losing streaks. Bankroll management is the most important handicapping skill to have.
Below are some links to good sites where you can keep track of line movements, weather, and public percentages during the day. I would also recommend using Twitter and handicapping forums as part of your handicapping tool kit, the help you connect with people and get a pulse of what direction people are moving in.
- https://www.bettingsports.com/mlb/odds/
- http://www.covers.com/odds/baseball/mlb-odds.aspx
- http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/mlb-baseball/
- http://www.wunderground.com/sports/MLB/
6/12 Early Moves:
Here are some lines that were hit by sharp groups early enough this morning to make this report. I have not had time to research games myself, so I am not recommending that you try to find these numbers and tail the plays at this time. These are listed to show you what has happened so far this morning, always do your own research on these before following along.
Cleveland Indians vs Boston Red Sox (Under 8.5)
Key Line Move @ 7:18 AM EST
Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants (Over 7)
Key Line Move @ 7:40 AM EST
6/11 Recap:
Early Moves:
Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets  (Under 7.5) – Win
Key Line Move @ 12:30 PM EST
Multiple groups started moving on this as soon as the lines opened early in the morning, and by 12:30pm est you could only find a total of 7 at the major sports books. It appears that the public woke up and hammered the over, but the number did not budge as the books were convinced that the late public money was coming in on the wrong side.
Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals (Over 7.5) – Loss
Key Line Move @ 11:30 AM EST
This line bounced between 7.5 and 8 all night long as there were sharp groups on both sides of the key 7.5 number. A consensus came in by 11:30am est, just about every book had settled on the total of 8. Under backers loved all of the sharp bettor attention to the over, which usually comes in the form of the public and doesn’t force a line to move.
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles (Under 9) – Win
Key Line Move @ 9:00 AM EST
There was no doubt about this one, all groups were on the same side as this number came off of most boards by 9:00am est, by far the strongest move of the day. You had to be up very late and very quick to act in order to catch this line at 9.
Late Moves:
Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox (Over 8.5) – Win
Key Line Move @ 5:00 PM EST
The first move of the afternoon wasn’t difficult to spot, two of the most powerful lineups in the major leagues facing off in Chicago with the wind blowing out to right field, over was the only play.
Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies (Over 10) – Push
Key Line Move @ 5:30 PM EST
The total here opened at 10.5, then dropped to 10 midday only to be hammered over around 5:30pm est by a lot of respected bettors and groups. It looks like the books were fooled here, I am not sure why they ever lowered the number to 10. Sometimes bettors bet one way early to get the line a little “soft” only to bet the other side for more money later, definitely the case here. These two teams scored 24 runs the night before and the bullpens saw a lot of action. Scoring 11 runs in the altitude of Denver, with depleted bullpens, isn’t very hard.
Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers (Texas ML) – Win
Key Line Move @ 6:00 PM EST
A few years ago sharp bettors and groups wouldn’t have laid this much juice on a play (-230), it would have been unheard of. Today, it is common place to risk high odds. The overwhelming majority of players now think “you’re not risking -230 if you win”. Maybe I am old school, but to me this was a no play, however I did consider laying even odds on the RL. This line was moving upward pretty steadily all day long with a big spike around 6:00pm est.
New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners (Over 6.5) – Loss
Key Line Move @ 6:30 PM EST
This was the most surprising move of the day to me, others were on board for the entire day which kept the odds moving towards 7. Tanaka is having a phenomenal first year in the major leagues for the Yankees, while Young is 6-0 at Safeco Field with an ERA under 3 and is 2-0 against the Yankees. I didn’t agree with this move at all, and passed on the game altogether.
Washington Nationals vs San Francisco (Under 7) – Loss
Key Line Move @ 6:30 PM EST
Bettors were on both sides of this one with sharps on the under and the public on the over. It is always easier to get your number when you are looking to go over, you will have the public on the over 80% of the time. Cain looked great off of his second trip to the DL his last time out, and Roark has been pitching extremely well all year long.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros (Under 8) – Win
Key Line Move @ 8:00 PM EST
Here is an example of my favorite type move, groups waited until the last minute to come strong leaving the books with no outs. No messing around here, it was one swift move on the under. McCarthy’s record is deceiving, he is much better than 1-8 especially on the road. Keuchel holds an outstanding 1.36 ERA over his last six starts. This game should stay under 7.
