The Sharp Report – June 13, 2014
In easily the best pitching match-up of Thursday night, Max Scherzer squared off against Chris Sale in Chicago.
The groups that I work with had a rough start to the day, going 2-4. I don’t know if everyone is focused on the World Cup or what, but there are some questionable moves that were made all day long. The evening just made things worse, we took a pounding yesterday. Sometimes over thinking becomes an issue, as you can tell from my brief write ups. Days and even weeks like this come around, that’s why we wager within our means and take notes like those below. Referring back to these short notes on your thought processes will come in handy when similar situations occur down the road. Sports investing will never become boring for you because you will find yourself constantly learning; readjusting and fine tuning your methods and thought processes to become better at turning a consistent profit.
Please refer to my first post in this series for a list of recommended sites to aid you in your handicapping.
6/13 Early Moves:
Here are some lines that were hit by sharp groups early enough this morning to make this report. I have not had time to research games myself, so I am not recommending that you try to find these numbers and tail the plays at this time. These are listed to show you what has happened so far this morning, always do your own research on these before following along.
Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers (Under 8)
Key Line Move @ 12:00 am EST
Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles (Under 9)
Key Line Move @ 6:00 am EST
Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox (Under 8.5)
Key Line Move @ 8:00 am EST
6/12 Recap:
Early Moves:
Cleveland Indians vs Boston Red Sox  (Under 8.5 and BOS ML) – Win and Win
Key Line Move @ 7:20 am EST and 4:30 pm EST
The total bounced between 8 and 8.5 most of the day, with rival groups on both sides of this line. There was just one swift move on the Red Sox, the line jumping from -145 to -160. I think the total was right where it should have been at 8.5. On one side you have Tomlin who has struggled against the Red Sox, sporting an ERA over 7 taking on Lester, who was coming off of a bad start but who has a strong record off of bad starts and against the Indians in his career. Â I stayed away from this game, but understood the moves which I can’t say for the majority of the rest of them.
Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants (Over 7 and WAS ML) – Win and Loss
Key Line Move @ 7:40 am EST and 9:30 am ESTÂ
The total of 7 was available off and on all day, there was a big push to 7.5 early and then late it dropped back to 7 with 54% of the public picking the under. Heavy smart money was coming in on Washington all day, with the biggest hit coming at 9:30am which dropped them down to +121 from +132. Most agree that the National’s rookie is much better than his record indicates, and this looked like a great place to fade Hudson of the Giants. A 5-4 Nationals win is what we were betting on here.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds (Under 7.5) – Win
Key Line Move @ 8:40 am EST
Most groups caught up to this by 8 am, but the damage had been done. Greinke came in with a 5-1 record vs the Reds sporting a 2.73 ERA, while his opposition Simon (winner of 4 out of his last 5) came in with an impressive home day record and ERA. Â The pitching duel here was pretty easy to spot, the total should have opened this line at 7.
Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles (Over 8.5) – Loss
Key Line Move @ 9:30 am EST
Action came in here early in the morning, I couldn’t see why they went this way at all. Both pitchers were coming in only allowing one run in their last start. I racked my brain trying to understand this, and I just didn’t understand it. Some guys like to fade, or go against streaks, and must have been doing that here. The Blue Jays have been in trouble lately and maybe the sharps thought that they were “due” to put up the runs that we all know they are capable of. I have never agreed with this philosophy, I tend to go with the streaks until they prove me wrong. This was a no play for me.
San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies (Under 8.5 and SD ML) -Â Loss and Loss
Key Line Move @ 10:14 am EST and 11:40 am EST
This game baffled me from the jump. We had two awful starters taking the mound, a combined 3-13 9.98 ERA, yet people moved on the under. Kendrick on the Phillies side came in with a 3-1 lifetime record vs the Padres, and the Phillies had won 27 of the last 35 meetings. I stayed clear of this one, and was not surprised to see the outcome.
Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies (Under 10) – Loss
Key Line Move @ 12:40 pm EST
Never take a Rockies under, especially at home. I know some of my clients are going to give me a hard time about this statement, as I thought I was getting cute a few times this year and we got destroyed by taking the Rockies under. With the Rockies, and especially at home, play the over or stay away. I think I finally learned my lesson finally and stayed away from this one after seeing it come across the wire. By 1:00 pm ET, most books had this at 9.5 and I am surprised that more people didn’t pound the over.
Late Moves:
Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox (Over 7) – Loss
Key Line Move @ 4:05 pm EST
By far the best pitching match-up of the day as Max Scherzer took on Chris Sale. Both pitchers have pitched well against the other’s team, but with these two offenses and the wind blowing straight out to center field at over ten miles an hour, you just can’t pass up an over 7. Even if these two aces pitched seven scoreless innings, enough runs could be scored in the final three innings off of the bullpens to cover this number. This line flip flopped between 7 and 7.5 most of the afternoon, it appears there was sharp action on both sides of this.
Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets (Over 7) – Loss
Key Line Move @ 5:00 pm EST
Some other groups came on late on the under 7.5, but the vast majority of sharps were on the over here. Whenever you get the key number of 7, look for the line to bounce back and forth between 6.5-7 or 7-7.5. In my experience, whichever way it is bouncing will tell you where the most respected money is coming from. The one thing that scared me about this game, was the fact that 78% of the public was on this over.
