Who will go deeper in March Madness: VCU or Northern Iowa?
Everybody loves an underdog. In men’s college basketball, there is nothing better than a small school making a Cinderella run deep into March, and occasionally, the first few days of April. In recent years, the NCAA has had plenty of those teams including George Mason, Butler, Wichita State and VCU.
Approaching February, it is easy to see four teams from non-power conferences which will be playing when the NCAA Tournament tips off. The Gonzaga Bulldogs may be a No. 1 seed, with the Northern Iowa Panthers, VCU Rams, and Wichita State Shockers certain to join them. While Gonzaga is the best of the bunch, and Wichita State is coming off an undefeated regular season, No. 14 VCU and No. 18 Northern Iowa remain under the radar.
So which of the two is poised to make a deeper journey into March Madness?
It is impossible to gauge from their head-to-head matchup on Dec. 13 at VCU. The Rams walked away with a 93-87 victory in a double-overtime classic, led Treveon Graham scoring 21 points with 11 rebounds and three assists.
Northern Iowa is anything but an explosive offensive team. The Panthers average only 64.8 points per game, ranking 242nd in the nation. Seth Tuttle is the only player scoring in double-figures, putting up 15.1 points/game. Tuttle is a 6’8 senior who has three double-doubles in his past four games.
The Panthers are built on defense, where they stifle opponents to 54.7 points/game, sixth in the country. Only twice has Northern Iowa allowed more than 70 points in a contest, beating SF Austin and losing to VCU.
The Rams are a different story. Under Smart, VCU has been known for a pressing defensive style, forcing teams into turnovers in the backcourt. In 2015, the Rams are prolific on the offensive end, spurred on by Graham and Melvin Johnson. The duo combines for 29.8 points/game, helping VCU to amass more than 80 or more points six times this season.
When looking at the two teams, experience definitely favors the Rams. VCU has been in the Final Four under head coach Shaka Smart, reaching the final weekend in 2011. The Rams have made the tourney in each of the past three campaigns, but have not gotten out of the second round. Northern Iowa is hoping to make its first appearance since 2010, when it fell to the Michigan State Spartans in the regional semis.
When everything is factored in, I would take VCU because of one major tiebreaker. The Rams play in a better conference, and have better wins. VCU has beaten Tennessee and Northern Iowa, while holding the top spot in the Atlantic 10. The Panthers are yet to beat anybody from a power conference, sans a weak Iowa Hawkeyes team.
Additionally, the Rams have a coach who knows what it takes to win in March and an offense that can steal a few games. Defense wins the tournament, but offense can advance easier through the early rounds.
