What Hope For Packers?

With or without Aaron Rodgers, the Packers’ postseason chances look bleak.

On October 27, the Green Bay Packers looked like a lock for the playoffs. The side was 5-2 having strung together four straight wins, a streak which included two victories over division opponents.

Fast-forward five weeks and any hope the defending NFC North champions have of postseason play is dangling precariously above a precipice of failure.

Of course, a lot has happened in those five weeks. First perennial MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers was lost to a cracked collar bone suffered in Week 9’s loss to the Chicago Bears. His backup, Seneca Wallace, was injured the following week, leaving quarterback duties to third-stringer Scott Tolzein.

Tolzein threw one touchdown and five interceptions across three games before being replaced by newly-signed, former Packer Matt Flynn midway through Week 12’s overtime game with the Minnesota Vikings. Flynn then took over starting duties for last Thursday’s Thanksgiving showdown with the Detroit Lions, a game in which he was sacked seven times.

This five game stretch saw the Pack drop four games and finish the fifth with a draw. Now at 5-6-1, the Packers are on the very edge of the playoff picture, with one foot firmly entrenched in the offseason.

So what hope do the Packers have left? Can the team put together the sort of late-season run we’ve come to associate with the New York Giants in recent years? Or are the Packers destined for a cold and desolate winter?

Since Rodgers went down on November 4, Green Bay fans have consoled themselves with the fact that their beloved quarterback will return and the team will again compete. Rodgers himself has been confident that he’ll return to the field, and even went as far as to tell reporters that he would play this coming week against the Atlanta Falcons as he sat courtside at Sunday’s Clippers-Pacers game in Los Angeles.

But there are whispers in the corridors and walkways of Lambeau Field that Rodgers’ return is far from assured. In fact, some are expecting the 2011 Most Valuable Player to be shut down for the rest of the season and saved for next season. These contradicting reports don’t spell good news for Packer fans.

Head coach Mike McCarthy cancelled a media session on Monday and is expected to report Rodgers’ status on Tuesday. One thing’s for sure, if McCarthy reports that his quarterback is out for the week, let alone the final month of the season, the Packers’ postseason hopes are likely to be extinguished before they even take the field on Sunday.

But let’s say Rodgers does come back, be it this weekend or in Week 15 (providing the Packers beat the Falcons this weekend). What chance does the team have?

Let’s make one thing clear straight away: the wild card route to the playoffs, while not mathematically out of the question, is shot for Mike McCarthy’s side.

The Packers would need to win out and then hope that the Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers both lose every remaining fixture while also hoping the Arizona Cardinals, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles all win and lose exactly the right amount of games.

There are simply too many variables outside of the Packers’ control for this to be a viable option, which leaves the side needing to win the NFC North title to advance.

As it stands, Green Bay (5-6-1) is two games back of Detroit (7-5-0) and one-game back of Chicago (6-6-0) in the NFC North. Neither of those leads is anywhere close to safe.

The Bears have suffered similar injury woes to the Packers and are playing without starting quarterback, Jay Cutler. The team has also lost six of its last nine games. Chicago doesn’t look like a contender and could easily fall off the pace. The Packers would also receive a huge boost from taking a win in the Week 17 showdown between the sides.

So, let’s say the Bears struggle against either the Cowboys (Week 14) or Eagles (Week 16) – or both – and then drop their finale to the Packers. That’s them removed from the equation, which leaves the Packers chasing the Lions.

Detroit is a much different prospect to Chicago. The Lions’ win over Green Bay on Thanksgiving means the two teams finished tied in the season head-to-head. Were the teams to finish the season tied, the Lions would finish ahead of the Packers by way of a superior record within the division – Detroit is currently 4-1-0 within the NFC North, a record the 2-3-0 Packers cannot top. So Green Bay needs to finish with more wins than the Lions. Essentially, that means winning three more games than the Lions.

After this Sunday’s game against the Falcons, the Packers take a trip to the Lone Star State to take on the Cowboys before hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers the following week. With both teams in a dogfight to make the postseason, picking up a win against either could be a tall order. Then there’s that rivalry game with the Bears to close out the season. Can the Packers pick up at least three wins? Yes, although it will be tough.

Detroit doesn’t have things easy either. This weekend the Lions travel to Philadelphia before hosting the Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night Football in Week 15. From there the team will host the New York Giants and visit Minnesota. The Giants could be out of contention by then. The Vikings already are. Will the Lions lose three or more of these games? That’s hugely unlikely, unless the NFC North injury curse strikes again, which isn’t beyond the realms of possibility the ways quarterbacks have been dropping in the division.

Ultimately, its looks like the Packers are all but done for the year. The task ahead is simply too strenuous even for a healthy team, let alone one so banged up – and potentially without Rodgers – as the Packers.

If Rodgers doesn’t return this weekend, and perhaps if he does, don’t be surprised to see all hope fade in a loss to the Falcons this Sunday either.

It looks like the frozen tundra of northern Wisconsin is going to be a little colder this winter.

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