Betting the Conference Title Games is Never Easy
Can Kaepernick lead the Niners to a road victory in the NFC title game?
One would think that betting just two games on the same day would probably not be real difficult in the National Football League. When those two games are the only games and victory means a trip to the Super Bowl while losing means another failed season, then suddenly picking a winner regardless of spread can be a bitch!
This season, you have three of the same four teams from last year at this very same time in New England, Baltimore and San Francisco. Only Atlanta is the newcomer to this group. It’s truly amazing how things can change in just one year when you consider the following;
San Francisco lost at home last year in this spot and has new QB starting Sunday.
Baltimore basically dropped their chance for the Super Bowl and now are playing emotion with the pending retirement of Ray Lewis.
New England seems to be the same team, but look at their rushing stats and defensive stats and you’ll find they are far from it.
In Atlanta, you’ve got a team that was 31 seconds away from again being a total failure as a number one seed.
Picking the participants of any championship game is difficult and with home-field no longer meaning what it once did, how will things shake out on Sunday? If you know, then you should be writing this column. These are some things to consider when betting the title games this week.
Brady and the Pats are almost unbeatable at home in the playoffs.
In the AFC
New England is 7-1 in AFC Title games and is 4-0 at home. The Ravens are playing in their fourth AFC Title game and have a record of 1-2 and never played this game at home. Advantage: Patriots
Home teams have won 6 straight AFC Championship games with the last one to lose being Denver in 2005. Advantage: Patriots
Overall, home teams have won 30 of 42 AFC Title games. Advantage: Patriots
In the NFC
San Fran is 5-8 in NFC Title games and is 1-3 on the road. Atlanta is 1-1 in these games and that is the same record they have on the road. This will be the team’s first home NFC Championship game. Advantage: Push
Home teams are 4-2 over their last 6 NFC Title tilts but have lost the last two. Advantage: 49ers
Overall, home teams have won 26 of 42 NFC Championship games. Advantage: Falcons
The Personnel Side
San Francisco is currently listed at -4.5 over the home team Atlanta. That number has actually grown from Sunday night when it was list at -3. Both teams will start fairly experienced and veteran defenses, but the quarterbacks are both starting their first-ever NFC Title games. Colin Kaepernick goes from the friendly confines of Candlestick Park to the indoor noise of the Georgia Dome. Matt Ryan meanwhile, will stay in familiar territory.
New England is currently a -10 favorite over Baltimore which ironically was a 10-point underdog last week in Denver. Apparently the odds-makers have earned nothing about this Ravens’ team. Both teams will field quarterbacks with multiple AFC Championship game starts, but only one, Joe Flacco, has failed to get past this phase of the playoffs. Defensively, both teams have a mix of old and young, but clearly the Ravens have more experience with Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs lining up.
The last two seasons, one road team has won and one home team has won their respective conference title game. This was actually a pretty strong trend during a period of time from 2001 through about 2007. Many of those losses occured in Pennsylvania as both Pittsburgh and Philadelphia lost numerous home title games.
The key here is simple. You have to go with who is hotter and that’s tough to say, but if you’re talking the line, I love the Ravens to cover and I love Atlanta to cover as well. The problem is who wins the games right? I’m going to buck the trend of the last 10-12 years and take both home teams in tight games to advance to the Super Bowl.
