5 Teams To Be Wary Of Against The Spread
A.J. McCarran and the Alabama Crimson Tide may well get to kiss the crystal football again this year, but can they fare better against the spread than they did last season?
When it comes to betting the spread, anything can happen. Teams that have exemplary straight up records can be horrible against the spread, while teams that are cannon fodder for the big guns on the field can prove to be real moneymakers when it comes to covering the line.
BettingSports.com has gone back over the 2012 standings and picked out five teams that bettors should be wary of when the College Football season kicks off at the end of August. We’ve decided to boycott those sides that were horrific both straight up and against the spread – the likes of the Kentucky Wildcats, the Illinois Fighting Illini, and the Colorado Buffaloes – in favor of those teams that had a fair amount of success on the field but lost bettors a considerable amount of money against the spread.
Essentially, these are the teams you need to be dubious of when you bet the spread this year. We start, perhaps surprisingly, with the defending national champions.
2012: 13-1 (SU), 7-7-0 (ATS)
When it came to covering the spread, Nick Saban’s all-conquering Crimson Tide was by no means amongst the worst teams in the league last season. In fact, as you might expect from a school that put together a 7-7-0 ATS record, the Tide was very much a middle-of-the-pack kind of team. That in itself wasn’t all that surprising. The odds makers know bettors want to back the favorite so they make it that little bit more difficult. Sure, the Tide cleared the house straight up, but bookies made a lot of that cash back thanks to the spread. The key here is to remember that it’ll be tough for Alabama against the spread again this coming season. While you’re getting caught up in the furor surrounding the runaway favorite to be crowned national champion again, remember that the Crimson Tide is far from a lock against the spread.
Bettors backing the Louisville Cardinals against the spread may end up feeling like Teddy Bridgewater after this hit.
2012: 11-2 (SU), 6-7-0 (ATS)
On a run to becoming the final ever Big East football champions and a 33-23 Sugar Bowl win over the Florida Gators, the Cardinals looked sharp last season, at least when it came to straight up results. That impressive record took a nose dive against the spread though, as the team failed to reach .500 in covering the bookmakers’ line. Favorites to win the rebranded American Athletic Conference this season, it’s worth keeping in mind that the Cardinals may not bring money to your flock if you take them against the spread.
3. LSU Tigers
2012: 10-3 (SU), 5-8-0 (ATS)
If you simply looked at the standings, LSU’s 10-3 season last year would look pretty solid, but if you scratch a little beneath the surface – or if you paid any attention last season – you’ll know that that 10-3 record was pretty disappointing. It took a long time for Les Miles’ side to really click last year, something that showed in the ATS standings. The Tigers began the year a disappointing 2-5-0 ATS. The side picked up three ATS wins in a row in late October/early November before closing out the season with three straight losses. Much of the team’s struggles came from high expectations – the Tigers ranked No. 3 on bookmakers’ pre-season lists to win the BCS National Championship – and like Alabama, LSU couldn’t top the heavy odds put in front of them. The Tigers are currently ranked No. 7 by bookmakers. Could the same happen this season?
An Orange Bowl victory was sweet but bettors backing the Florida State Seminoles against the spread were left with a sour taste in their mouth.
2012: 12-2 (SU), 5-9-0 (ATS)
Another preseason favorite, another side that struggled against the spread. The Seminoles may have earned an ACC championship and an Orange Bowl victory, but the side didn’t earn any cash for those bettors backing them against the spread. Just five wins in 14 games put the Seminoles in the bottom 30 of the ATS standings, something bettors should pay close attention to heading into this season. Florida State is once again amongst bookmakers’ top 10 to win a national title, which means we should see more point spreads set out to derail bettors.
1. USC Trojans
2012: 7-6 (SU), 3-10-0 (ATS)
Believe it or not, there was only one team in the nation that fared worse against the spread than the Trojans last season; the Virginia Cavaliers (4-8 SU, 2-9-1 ATS). Alongside the Air Force Falcons, Lane Kiffin’s disappointing side was just 3-10-0 ATS, a miserable record for a team that entered the season as the favorite to take home the crystal football. Of course, this favoritism had a lot to do with why the Trojans struggled against the spread. Opening the season 1-5-0 ATS contradicted the school’s 5-1 straight up record, but the two would align towards the end of the season as the team went 1-5 both straight up and against the spread. Bettors should heed the warning heading into the new season, not only in respects to USC, but also in respects to what can happen to a heavy favorite. And we’ve already seen that Alabama could have problems against the spread this season.
The Other End of the Spectrum
If you’re looking for teams that can cover the spread, look no further than the Northwestern Wildcats. Pat Fitzgerald’s side went 10-3 straight up last season, which was impressive in a tough Big Ten conference, but not as impressive as a 12-1-0 ATS record, a tally that made the Wildcats the nation’s No. 1 team against the spread.
The Mountain West Conference produced three of the best teams against the spread last season. The Utah State Aggies (11-2 SU, 11-1-1 ATS) were only beaten against the spread once all season; a 36-point SU win over the Idaho Vandals in a game which they were favored by 37. Both the San Jose State Spartans (11-2 SU, 11-2-0 ATS) and Fresno State Bulldogs (9-4 SU, 11-2-0 ATS) also posted 11 wins against the spread.
In addition to defying the odds and recording a more than respectable season in the wake of the Jerry Sandusky child sex abuse scandal, the Penn State Nittany Lions (8-4 SU, 9-2-1 ATS) also found themselves in the top five ATS standings. It goes to show that you can never be sure just which team will rebel against the Vegas lines.
For an in depth look at all of 2012’s standings, including those against the spread, visit the BettingSports.com College Football Standings page.
