AFC South: Week 15 Preview

Andrew Luck and the Colts secured the AFC South title last weekend.

Despite being soundly beaten by the Cincinnati Bengals a week ago, the Indianapolis Colts became the second AFC team to secure a playoff berth thanks by virtue of a Tennessee Titans loss to the Denver Broncos.

With the division title claimed, there’s little to be decided within the AFC South between now and the end of the year.

The Titans still have an outside shot at the postseason but that could be shot by the end of Sunday. The Jacksonville Jaguars were eliminated from contention when the Chargers upset the Broncos on Thursday night. As for the Houston Texans, that’s a team for which the end of the season cannot come soon enough.

Still, for bettors there’s some money still to be made within the division. Here’s a breakdown of this weekend’s action in the AFC South.

Wade Phillips and the Texans just want something to cheer about this festive season.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN, 1:00 p.m. ET (matchup)

With Gary Kubriak out of the picture, Wade Phillips will look to navigate Houston (2-11, 1-5 road) through the remaining three games and hopefully leave the team in some kind of fit state for next season.

Indianapolis (8-5, 4-2 home) meanwhile will look to find a way of climbing the AFC standings in search of a first round bye. The way things have gone for the Colts of late – the team has lost three of the last five and not looked good at all – that will be a tough challenge. Even getting past the Texans could be tougher than some think.

How often have we seen a team rally when its head coach is given his marching orders? How often has a team spluttered into the postseason following a strong start to the year? How often has a team that has secured its berth simply switched off?

Now consider that the Colts only defeated the Texans 27-24 on November 3 and you find yourself with a game that looks closer than you might think.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts odds for 12/15/2013

The Colts (-270) opened as the favorite over the Texans (+230) on the moneyline but that divide has been shrinking as bettors lose faith in the Colts.

Indianapolis is 19-4 all-time against the Texans, which would suggest a one-way game but those anomalies above suggests this could go either way.

The spread opened at 7 but that has dropped as low as five and could still move before kickoff.

Indianapolis (7-6-0 ATS) has fared better against the spread than Houston (3-1-0 ATS), the NFL’s worst team against the spread. The Texans are 2-5-0 ATS in their last seven visits to Indianapolis.

The over/under opened at 45.5 and continues to hover around that mark.

Both Houston (9-4-0) and Indianapolis (8-5-0) have favored the over this season. The total went over in the November meeting between the sides but has gone under in four of Houston’s last five visits to Lucas Oil Stadium.

Bernard Pollard and the Titans are simply playing to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans

LP Field, Nashville, TN, 4:05 p.m. ET (matchup)

Tennessee (5-8, 2-4 home) will look to keep its playoff hopes alive when it hosts the Arizona Cardinals (8-5, 2-4 road) at LP Field.

A loss for the Titans will not necessarily end the team’s playoff challenge but the team will have to hope the Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins and New York Jets all come unstuck this weekend. The Titans own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Jets and Chargers – immediately ahead of them in the standings – but the Ravens and Dolphins are two games up in conference play, which means the Titans need to finish with one more straight-up win than those two.

On the other side of the field, Arizona is looking to stay in the playoff hunt itself. With the Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers firmly attached to wild card berths, it’s going to be very hard for the Cardinals to make it into January, but not impossible. A win in Nashville is essential though.

Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans odds for 12/15/2013

Arizona (-145) opened as the favorite over Tennessee (+125) on the moneyline despite a poor record away from home.

The Cards are 5-4 all-time against the Titans but 1-2 since the latter left Houston for Tennessee.

The spread opened at 3 where it remains. Arizona (8-4-1 ATS) has been excellent against the spread, while Tennessee (6-6-1 ATS) has covered as many time as not.

The over/under opened at 41.5 and has climbed as high as 42.5.

Tennessee (8-4-1) has favored the over while Arizona (6-7-0) has marginally favored the under.

With Maurice Jones-Drew listed as doubtful, can Jacksonville continue its run of good form?

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars

Everbank Field, Jacksonville, FL, 1:00 p.m. ET (matchup)

Across the next three games the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9, 1-5 home) will look to continue to build positively towards the future. A recent string of four wins in five games finally has the team heading in the right direction. Another home win wouldn’t go amiss.

While the Buffalo Bills (4-9, 1-5 road) are not mathematically eliminated from postseason equations, the team has zero chance of playing into January. In fact, the Bills’ playoff chances could be done by 4:00 p.m. ET.

The Jaguars have struggled at home but the Bills have been a mess on the road for years. This could be the opportunity the Jags need to add to last week’s first home win, a defeat of the Texans. Of course, the Bills will be looking at this as an opportunity to pick up a rare win away from Orchard Park, N.Y.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars odds for 12/15/2013

Buffalo (-125) opened as a narrow favorite over Jacksonville (+105) on the moneyline.

The all-time head-to-head series is tied 6-6 with Buffalo winning when these sides met last December. That win snapped a streak of three wins in four for the Jaguars.

The spread opened at 3 and has dropped as low as 2.5, depending which sportsbook you use.

Jacksonville (5-8-0 ATS) has covered the spread in four of the last five, matching its straight up record. Buffalo (6-7-0 ATS) has failed to cover in two straight and five of the last six. However, Buffalo is 4-1-0 ATS when playing in Jacksonville.

The over/under opened at 44 and has dropped as low as 42. Both Jacksonville (8-5-0) and Buffalo (8-5-0) have favored the over this season. The total has gone over in four of the Bills’ last six visits to northern Florida.

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