AFC South: Week 16 Preview

Can Andrew Luck and the Colts improve their playoff stock Sunday against the Chiefs?

With a postseason berth secured, the Indianapolis Colts will take to the field Sunday looking to improve their playoff position. Standing in front of the Colts’ advancement are the Kansas City Chiefs, another team planning on moving on up.

A 5-0 record within the AFC South has helped Indianapolis (9-5, 4-3 road) secure a division title but a 4-5 record against non-divisional rivals lends itself to a myriad of questions about the team’s true playoff potential.

Defeating the Chiefs – which would give Chuck Pagano’s side a 3-1 record against the strong AFC West – would go a long way to validating the side’s place in the postseason. It would also move the team one step closer to the No. 2 berth and a wild card bye.

Realistically speaking, a No. 2 berth may be beyond the Colts but until it is mathematically impossible Pagano needs to use the achievement as the proverbial carrot on a stick.

Kansas City (11-3, 5-2 home) has its own reasons to covet a win at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. The Chiefs remain deadlocked with the Denver Broncos at the top of the AFC West, but a 0-2 record against the Broncos means the Chiefs need to win one more game than their rivals if they are to win the division title and take a No. 1 or No. 2 berth.

Of course, the difference between those top two berths and the No. 5 seed the Chiefs currently occupy is huge.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs odds for 12/22/2013

Playing at home – and in all likelihood in the snow – Kansas City (-290) opened as the moneyline favorite over Indianapolis (+245).

The Chiefs have won two straight after a three-game losing skid, and have looked an offensive juggernaut doing so. Indianapolis meanwhile has flip-flopped wins over the last seven weeks.

The Colts defeated the Chiefs in the corresponding fixture a year ago, and have won 11 of the last 13 meetings between the sides.

The spread opened at 6.5 and has grown to 7. Both teams have registered an 8-6-0 ATS record this season. Both have gone 3-3-0 ATS over their last six.

The Colts are 10-3-0 ATS against the Chiefs during their stretch of 11 wins in 13 games.

* * * * *

Like Indianapolis, the Houston Texans (2-12, 1-6 home) can have a say in who wins the AFC West. The Texans host the Denver Broncos (11-3, 4-2 road) at Reliant Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

A miserable season for the Texans was made a little more miserable a week ago as the side fell 25-3 to the Colts. The team’s three points of offense tied a season low and marked the fourth time this season that the embattled Texans have failed to record 10 or more points. With the league’s No. 1 offense pulling into town, Sunday afternoon could prove to be the worst yet for Wade Phillips and Co.

The Broncos will be without Wes Welker, who will likely miss the rest of the regular season following a concussion two weeks ago. Peyton Manning has more than enough targets to make things difficult though so don’t expect to find the Texans celebrating anytime soon.

Denver Broncos vs. Houston Texans odds for 12/22/2013

Houston (+450) opens as the underdog against Denver (-565) on the moneyline.

Since the Texans joined the league in 2002, the two sides have split four games. The Texans were victorious a year ago, picking up the only road win between the two sides.

The spread opened at 10 and has climbed to 10.5 with some sportsbooks.

Houston (3-11-0 ATS) has been miserable against the spread this season while Denver (8-7-0 ATS) is in the black, just. That being said, the Broncos have covered the spread in five of their last seven.

Both teams are 2-2-0 ATS in the head-to-head series, each covering when winning straight up.

The over/under opened at 53.5 and has dropped slightly to 53. Both Denver (11-3-0) and Houston (9-5-0) have favored the over this season. Houston has seen the total go over in five of its last seven while Denver has witnessed the over in three of its last four.

 * * * * *

The Tennessee Titans (5-9, 3-4 road) travel to north Florida to face the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10, 1-6 home) in Sunday’s remaining AFC South matchup, or should we say the least appealing game in all of Week 16?

Remarkably the Titans somehow remained relevant until a loss to the Broncos two weeks ago. Now the side – which has lost eight of its last 10 games – really has nothing to play for. Even a spoiler role is out of the question with the Titans closing the season at home against the Texans in Week 17.

Jacksonville began the year irrelevant before coming on strong of late. A 27-20 loss at home to the Buffalo Bills last week spoiled a spell of four wins in five games. Gus Bradley’s side will look to win at EverBank Field for just the second time this season as it hosts the Titans.

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars odds for 12/22/2013

Tennessee (-240) opened as the favorite over Jacksonville (+200) thanks mostly to the Jaguars’ horrific record at home – the team has won just twice in its last 15 games at The Bank.

Jacksonville’s first win of this season came on November 10, which saw a 29-27 defeat of the Tennessee Titans.

The spread opened at 4 and has climbed to 5.

Neither Jacksonville (5-9-0 ATS) nor Tennessee (6-7-1 ATS) has fared well against the spread this season. However, the Jaguars have covered in four of their last six while the Titans have failed to cover in three straight and five of the last six.

The over/under opened at 42.5 and has climbed to 44.

Both Jacksonville (9-5-0) and Tennessee (9-4-1) have become accustomed to watching the total go over this season, including in their earlier head-to-head game. That being said, the total has gone under in five of Tennessee’s last six visits to Jacksonville.

For a list of Week 16 NFL odds, click here.

For a full list of NFL Futures, click here.

For NFL team prop bets, click here.

For NFL player prop bets, click here.