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Denver Nuggets Beat Boston Celtics, Push the Spread

Before the season began, many were predicting that the Denver Nuggets would have a breakout season. Their team was simply too deep, too young, and too talented not to. While they started out the year with a brutal schedule, they’ve hit a much easier stretch, and are now looking like perhaps the third or even second best team in the Western Conference. They’re currently 34-21, and the fifth seed in the Conference if the playoffs started today. They helped their playoff credentials by beating the Boston Celtics 97-90 on Tuesday behind two 26-point performances by Ty Lawson and Danilo Gallinari.

“I’m just attacking, not thinking about whether I should shoot it, not second-guessing my shot,” Lawson said. “I’m just trusting myself and it’s been working out for me.”

Here were a few betting trends for the two teams heading into the match, per OddsShark.com:

Boston Celtics Trends:
When playing on Tuesday are 8-2
Before playing LA Lakers are 6-4
After playing Chicago are 5-5
After a win are 8-2

Denver Nuggets Trends:
When playing on Tuesday are 3-7
Before playing Washington are 6-4
After playing Brooklyn are 7-3
After a loss are 7-3

Celtics at Nuggets Trends:
Boston is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston’s last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston’s last 6 games on the road
Boston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver’s last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Denver’s last 10 games
Denver is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Boston

The Nuggest were seven-point favorites in the game, so they pushed, but they have been shockingly great against the spread this season, posting an ATS record of 32-22. The Celtics, meanwhile, were only 22-27-3 ATS heading into the game. (This is largely a result of them being overvalued by  the betting public, of course, which drives their lines up to artificially high marks.)

Denver is going to make its money on two things this season: their home court advantage and their near-unparalleled youth and athleticism. Within the Western Conference, the Thunder are the only team young and athletic enough to run with them, and while the Thunder are a far better and more consistent team, the Nuggets can be tough to top when they get on a roll. They showed why they’re such an offensively devastating team in their victory over the normally-stingy Boston Celtics.

“They’re one of the better defensive teams in the league and you’ve got to figure out ways to get baskets,” Nuggest point guard Andre Miller said of the Celtics. “We didn’t always shoot the ball the way we wanted to, but we found ways to get some easy baskets and we got to the free throw line. And we finished off the game the right way.”

If you’re looking for a real value bet with the Nuggets the rest of the way, consider betting on the Nuggets’ moneyline when they play at home. They’re 23-3 on their home court, and while you won’t get the best odds from taking them to win straight-up, their home court defense has been the closest thing to a lock in the NBA this season.

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