March Madness East Region: Three Biggest Potential Upsets

The East region is one of the least ferocious in the tournament this year, with a seemingly easy path for Indiana and Miami to square off in the Elite Eight. However, that doesn’t mean that the first round of games won’t feature some stunning upsets. Here are the three games I think are most likely to end in an upset, and the gambling odds that accompany them.

No. 5 UNLV (25-9) vs. No. 12 California (20-11), March 21, 7:27 p.m., truTV

UNLV: three point favorites

UNLV, when Anthony Bennett is playing at his best, are a difficult team to beat. They’re the sixth best rebounding team in the country, and rack up the seventh most assists per game. They have some of the best defensive analytics in the nation, but they play in a weaker Mountain West conference that may not have challenged them. Cal was on a hot streak before dropping a game to Stanford to end the season and then losing to Utah in the Pac-12 tournament. Neither team is immortal, that’s for certain; for that reason, I don’t think these teams are as far apart as their tournament seeding indicates. It’s by no means a lock, but don’t be surprised if Cal covers the +3 spread or even wins the game outright.

Here are some other gambling trends for both teams, per OddsShark.com:

California Golden Bears Trends:
When playing on Thursday are 4-6
After playing Utah are 4-2
After a loss are 6-4

UNLV Rebels Trends:
When playing on Thursday are 9-1
After playing New Mexico are 7-3
After a loss are 8-2

A few Golden Bears at Rebels trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of UNLV’s last 5 games
UNLV is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing California
UNLV is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
UNLV is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games

No. 3 Marquette (23-8) vs. No. 14 Davidson (26-7), March 21, 3:00 p.m., truTV

Marquette: three point favorites

This has become one of the most popular upset picks in the tourney, and it’s easy to see why: Davidson is a phenomenal offensive team with an array of talented three point shooters, and Marquette plays the opposite brand of basketball, predicated on grinding defense and slow tempos. In other words, if Davidson is on fire and pouring in buckets, Marquette may very well be incapable of catching up. Once again, far from a lock, but Davidson could easily cover the spread and take down the Golden Eagles in the first round.

Other betting trends from OddsShark:

Davidson Wildcats Trends:
When playing on Thursday are 8-2
After playing College of Charleston are 9-1
After a win are 10-0

Marquette Golden Eagles Trends:
When playing on Thursday are 9-1
After playing Notre Dame are 6-4
After a loss are 10-0

A few Wildcats at Golden Eagles trends to consider:
Marquette is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Marquette’s last 5 games
Marquette is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

No. 6 Butler (26-8) vs. No. 11 Bucknell (28-5), March 21, 12:40 p.m., truTV

Butler: three point favorites

This is a classic clash between two hard-nosed mid-major squads. Neither team has any particular statistical category covered particularly well, but Bucknell does have size and could exploit Butler in the paint. I think Butler will win, but just a nose. I like Bucknell to cover at +3.

Butler Bulldogs Trends:
When playing on Thursday are 8-2
After playing Saint Louis are 2-2
After a loss are 9-1

A few Bison at Bulldogs trends to consider:
Butler is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Butler’s last 6 games