Misleading Pitching Stats at the All-Star Break

Baseball bettors and baseball statistics buffs keep score a little differently. While the sabermetrics fan is interested in how a pitcher throws, bettors are worried whether the team wins. The same can be said for win/loss records. A bettor doesn’t care if the starter gets the win or not. As long as the team he bets on wins, he’s happy. Not so for statistical guys.

Many times a pitcher’s win-loss record is close to his team’s when he starts. At the break, Zack Greinke is 11-4 and the Diamondbacks are 13-5 when he starts. Close to what you would expect. But then there are pitchers like Jordan Montgomery. While his win/loss record is 6-4, the Yankees are 7-9 when he starts.

Some of the misleading pitchers at the 2017 All-Star Break were Arizona’s Taijuan Walker who was 6-4. But Arizona was 10-4 with him on the mound, so they won all four of his no decisions. The Angels’ JC Ramirez is 6-7, but the Angels were 10-7 with him on the mound. The most misleading would be White Sox lefty Jose Quintana. He sports a poor 4-8 record. But the White Sox were 10-8 in games he started.

It also works the other way. Just look at Tampa Bay’s Jake Odorizzi, who sported a 5-4 record at the break. Tampa Bay was just 6-10 in games he started. While Kansas City’s Jason Hammel had a poor 4-8 record, Kansas City was 4-13 when he started. Chase Anderson had a 6-2 record, while the Brewers were 8-8 when he started.

Remember, a pitcher’s win/loss record only tells part of the story. A team’s win/loss record with a particular pitcher on the mound is a better indicator of what a pitcher can do. Your wager counts whether or not the starter gets the decision or a relief pitcher does. so it makes sense to factor in

Jason Hammel.