Breaking Down the Non-BCS Bowls for SEC Teams
Mingo and the Tigers will need to contain the Clemson offense in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.
You already know where Alabama is playing and you already know Florida is in the Sugar Bowl but perhaps you’ve lost track of the other teams in the SEC as the 2012 college football bowl season is about to get underway. Here’s a little preview of those ‘other’ teams from America’s top conference and a quick breakdown of their games.
Music City Bowl- NC State (+7) vs Vanderbilt – In what should amount to a home game for the Commodores, Vandy enters this one as the clear favorite. The Wolfpack never really recovered in my opinion from that opening game thrashing at the hands of Tennessee. Yes, they would eventually knock off #1 Florida State, but the Seminoles proved to be less of a threat than I thought anyway.
Vandy is led offensively by Jordan Rodgers, brother of Packers’ QB Aaron. He gets plenty of help from 1,000 yard rusher Zac Stacy. The impressive thing about Vandy is that the only gave up about 18 points per game which was good for 15th in the nation defensively.
Chick-Fil-A Bowl – Clemson (+4) vs LSU – This is a match-up of two really good 10-2 football teams but I can’t help but consider the fact that LSU was a minute from knocking off Alabama and lost 14-6 at Florida. Clemson lost to Florida State and South Carolina which aren’t exactly sisters of the poor.
This game comes down to Clemson’s high-powered offense against the always tough defense of the LSU Tigers. The variable in this case becomes the LSU offense which I believe will score on Clemson with solid balance between the run and the pass of Zach Mettenberger.
Russell and the Bulldogs take on Northwestern in the Gator Bowl.
Gator Bowl – Northwestern (+2) vs Mississippi State – The Bulldogs started 7-0 before losing four of their last five games to finish 8-4. Northwestern had a very good season which could have been significantly better were it not for late game failures against Nebraska and Michigan.
Tyler Russell threw for 22 touchdowns during the regular season and now faces a Wildcats’ defense that gave up about 22 points per game. The Wildcats’ offense will be dangerous because of the constant dual threat provided by QB Kain Colter. Miss. State is used to seeing tough offenses, but the Northwestern style will be a little new. I like the Wildcats in this game.
Capital One Bowl – Nebraska (+10) vs Georgia – In my eyes this game comes down to the quarterbacks. Taylor Martinez of the Huskers can be brilliant at times while at others he’s a turnover machine. Which one that shows up will be the major difference in the outcome of the game. Georgia’s Aaron Murray has moved along nicely all season long aided in part by a flourishing running game.
Where Nebraska will no doubt try to hurt the Bulldogs is on the ground. Alabama gashed the Georgia defense for over 300 yards rushing in the SEC Title game and a healthy Rex Birkhead will try to do the same for the Cornhuskers. As is the case with so many teams, they will go as the QBs go and which-ever way Martinez is that is ultimately the fate for Nebraska. Look for the athletic Georgia defense to be active and aggressive in getting after Martinez which should be enough to force errors. I like the Bulldogs to win and cover in this one.
Outback Bowl – Michigan (+5) vs South Carolina – The Wolverines have gotten a glimpse of life without Denard Robinson as he has transitioned into a running back/receiver of sorts and has given way to Devin Gardner at QB. Gardner offers a little less mobility, but better passing. The Gamecocks will counter that with a stout defense led by All-America Jadevon Clowney who has harassed quarterbacks all season.
Michigan’s defense was very good throughout the first part of the season but faultered late and I think that’s where South Carolina can take advantage with some balance on offense. I like a nice tight game here, but the Gamecocks will pull away late to win by double-digits.
BBVA Compass Bowl – Pitt (+3.5) vs Ole Miss – Both teams finished the season at 6-6, but Pitt was a little hotter at the end of the season winning four of their last six while the Rebels lost three of their lost four. The Panthers have a veteran QB in Tino Sunseri who can be very erratic or very special at times. They will try to keep the pressure off of him with Ray Graham running the football.
Ole Miss relies on the passing of Bo Wallace who had 19 TD tosses in 2012. Ten of those touchdown passes went to Donte MonCrief who finished with jsut under 1,000 yards reciving on the year. I like a really tight game here with Ole Miss’ tougher competition paying dividends in a tight ball game.
Note: I consider the Cotton Bowl a ‘big bowl game’ and will address it next week.
