NFC Win Totals for 2013
The San Francisco 49ers may be Super Bowl favorites but the team could struggle to cover the 11.5 games sportsbooks have assigned it.
With kickoff still more than three months away, players, coaches, fans, and bettors alike are sat twiddling their thumbs patiently, or not so patiently, waiting for the NFL season to begin.
This past week, sportsbooks provided a distraction, releasing the Win Totals for 2013. Bettors can now ponder whether to back the over or under on all 32 teams.
Yesterday, BettingSports took a look at the AFC Win Totals for 2013. Today we check out the Win Totals in the NFC.
Read on to find out what we think about how teams are going to fair this season, beginning with a team that looks to be trending downwards this year.
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2012: 5-11 | 2011: 8-8 | 2010: 5-11 |Strength of Schedule: .520 (7th)
o5.5 (+120) | u5.5 (-150)
With just three winning seasons since moving to the desert (from St. Louis) in 1988, the Cardinals are perennial losers. Should we expect any different this season? Well, no. An excellent 4-0 start to last season had many of us thinking that the team might have turned a corner, but a 1-11 finish proved a more realistic snapshot. But to cover the over/under, they need just six wins. Just six wins will be tough though with the only breaks on the schedule being Tennessee and Jacksonville. [Super Bowl: 125/1 | NFC: 66/1]
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2012: 13-3 | 2011: 10-6 | 2010: 13-3 |Strength of Schedule: .504 (15th)
o10 (+105) | u10 (-135)
The Falcons have 10 or more wins in four of the last five seasons. Whether the side can cover 10 this season will likely depend on how the NFC South plays out. You have to believe the Saints will be improved, while both Tampa Bay and Carolina showed positive signs towards the end of last year. If the division beats up on itself, Atlanta may fall under 10 wins, especially with San Francisco, Seattle, New England, Washington, and Green Bay on the slate. [Super Bowl: 14/1 | NFC: 15/2]
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2012: 7-9 | 2011: 6-10 | 2010: 2-14 |Strength of Schedule: .543 (1st)
o7 (-125) | u7 (-105)
The Panthers disappointed last season as they failed to utilize Cam Newton’s skills, but the end of the year – in which the team won five of six – suggested Carolina is better than a seven-win team. That’s why bookmakers are favoring the over on this one. That strength of schedule – the toughest in the league – could be a major roadblock though. [Super Bowl: 66/1 | NFC: 33/1]
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2012: 10-6 | 2011: 8-8 | 2010: 11-5 |Strength of Schedule: .502 (16th)
o8.5 (-130) | u8.5 (EVEN)
The Bears will take to the field without Brian Urlacher for the first time since 1999 this September. While time had noticeably slowed the linebacker, his locker room presence and leadership proved vital for the team. Now the Bears have to learn to cope without him. Many consider the hard-nosed Chicago side a perennial achiever in the NFL, but consider this; the team has covered 8.5 games in just six of the last 18 seasons. With the AFC North and NFC East on the schedule, the Bears could struggle to record nine wins this season. However, when healthy, the team dominated last season. This really could go either way. [Super Bowl: 33/1 | NFC: 16/1]
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All eyes are on Big D: can Tony Romo and the Cowboys actually succeed this season?
2012: 8-8 | 2011: 8-8 | 2010: 6-10 |Strength of Schedule: .475 (25th)
o8.5 (-115) | u8.5 (-115)
Between 2005 and 2009, the Cowboys won nine or more games each season. The last three years have proven less fruitful. Like Atlanta, whether the Cowboys cover 8.5 this season could depend on how well they play within the division. Games against the Chiefs, Raiders, Chargers, and Rams should get them halfway there at least, but should means diddly squat in Big D lately. [Super Bowl: 33/1 | NFC: 16/1]
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2012: 4-12 | 2011: 10-6 | 2010: 6-10 |Strength of Schedule: .539 (2nd)
o7.5 (-125) | u7.5 (-105)
Let history help you out on this one. The Lions have finished with eight wins or more just once since 2001. Now, remember the pomp that accompanied the Lions at the beginning of last season. Where did that get the team? Now, factor in that only one team (Carolina) has a tougher strength of schedule to face. Bookmakers like the Lions to go over, but that’s a big ask for a team that hasn’t proven itself. [Super Bowl: 40/1 | NFC: 28/1]
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2012: 11-5 | 2011: 15-1 | 2010: 10-6 |Strength of Schedule: .533 (6th)
o10.5 (-130) | u10.5 (EVEN)
Green Bay has won 11 or more games in four of the last six seasons. The side hasn’t looked weak for years, and Mike McCarthy and Co. continues to plug gaps in the lineup in a manner that somehow keeps the team rolling onwards. The only thing that could derail this team, aside from injury, is that strength of schedule; nine games come against teams with 10 or more wins in 2012. [Super Bowl: 12/1 | NFC: 13/2]
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2012: 10-6 | 2011: 3-13 | 2010: 6-10 |Strength of Schedule: .516 (tied 10th)
o7.5 (-105) | u7.5 (-125)
The surprise team of 2012, can Minnesota impress for a second year in a row? The Vikings will find it tough with the NFC East and AFC North on the schedule alongside intra-divisional games. Then throw in Seattle and a (potentially) tough Carolina side and you have a tough schedule. The under looks more likely here. [Super Bowl: 40/1 | NFC: 20/1]
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With Sean Payton back on the sidelines and Drew Brees at the helm, will business as usual resume for the Saints?
2012: 7-9 | 2011: 13-3 | 2010: 11-5 |Strength of Schedule: .539 (3rd)
o9.5 (-115) | u9.5 (-115)
With ‘Bountygate’ relegated to a footnote, the Saints will be looking to return to the form that saw the team win 11 or more games in three straight seasons (2009-2011). Most expect that Sean Payton’s presence on the sideline will be enough to secure exactly that. The Saints face a tough strength of schedule but the likes of Arizona, St. Louis, Miami, Buffalo, and NY Jets shouldn’t pose too much of a problem. As with most teams in the NFC South, covering the over/under could come down to divisional play. The Saints look good enough to win 10 though. [Super Bowl: 18/1 | NFC: 10/1]
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2012: 9-7 | 2011: 9-7 | 2010: 10-6 |Strength of Schedule: .480 (24th)
o9 (-115) | u9 (-115)
The Giants have won nine games in seven of the last nine seasons. They’ve won 10 games just four times though. Picking the over/under on nine is difficult to say the least. The team, like most of the NFC East, was disappointing last season, but, like most of the NFC East, it’s easy to see the Giants having a strong season. Maybe not strong enough to win 10 though. [Super Bowl: 22/1 | NFC: 12/1]
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2012: 4-12 | 2011: 8-8 | 2010: 10-6 |Strength of Schedule: .496 (tied 19th)
o7 (-115) | u7 (-115)
Take out last year and the Eagles had won eight games or more in 11 of 12 seasons. That’s almost enough to back the over from the off. However, there’s a big question mark next to the Eagles. Actually, there are a few, but for the time being let’s focus on new head coach, Chip Kelly. College coaches hardly have the greatest record after switching to the pros, and Kelly is faced with trying to organize a disheveled group that looked awful last season. On top of that, the NFC East is a tough division to coach in. The Eagles will struggle to win eight. [Super Bowl: 33/1 | NFC: 18/1]
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2012: 11-4-1 | 2011: 13-3 | 2010: 6-10 |Strength of Schedule: .520 (tied 8th)
o11.5 (-105) | u11.5 (-125)
Favorites to win the Super Bowl, most NFL followers probably expect the 49ers to win 12 games this season but not the bookies. Sportsbooks expect a tough battle with Seattle in the NFC West, a tricky strength of schedule, and potential sophomore slump for Colin Kaepernick could keep the Niners below 12 games. All of that sounds very plausible from where we’re sitting. And then there’s the case of Michael Crabtree’s torn Achilles. [Super Bowl: 6/1 | NFC: 15/4]
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Can Russell Wilson and the upstart Seattle Seahawks edge out San Francisco this season?
2012: 11-5 | 2011: 7-9 | 2010: 7-9 |Strength of Schedule: .516 (tied 10th)
o10.5 (-130) | u10.5 (EVEN)
After a first winning season in six years, most expect an encore performance from the Seahawks this season, and an arms race with the 49ers this offseason suggests the Seattle front office expects exactly that. But the Seahawks will be taking nobody by surprise this season, which could prevent the team making 11 wins for a second straight year. Bookmakers like Seattle to go over 10.5 wins though, but it looks like it’ll take a pair of wins over San Francisco to achieve that feat. [Super Bowl: 17/2 | NFC: 9/2]
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2012: 7-8-1 | 2011: 2-14 | 2010: 7-9 |Strength of Schedule: .539 (tied 3rd)
o7 (-115) | u7 (-115)
While the Rams have been lost in all the kafuffle surrounding the Seahawks and Niners this offseason, Jeff Fisher has his team primed for improvement. Four wins in the last six games was a good way to close out 2012, but losing Steven Jackson to free agency will be an obstacle that needs tackling quick. The over/under could go either way here. [Super Bowl: 60/1 | NFC: 30/1]
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2012: 7-9 | 2011: 4-12 | 2010: 10-6 |Strength of Schedule: .500 (17th)
o7.5 (-130) | u7.5 (EVEN)
Between Oct. 14 and Nov. 18, the Bucs won five of six games, suggesting that there are positives to be mined from what otherwise looked like a lost cause. Whether Greg Schiano is the man to do that mining remains to be seen. Winning in the NFC South will be tough but games against the AFC East and NFC West will provide some very winnable games. Eight wins might be one too many though. [Super Bowl: 50/1 | NFC: 28/1]
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2012: 10-6 | 2011: 5-11 | 2010: 6-10 |Strength of Schedule: .498 (18th)
o8.5 (+110) | u8.5 (-140)
With all the talk about Robert Griffin III’s relationship with Mike Shanahan, the Redskins are in danger of taking over the Cowboys’ spot as NFC drama queens. Next stop: a media circus to rival the Jets. Any distraction will hinder the Redskins as they look to make the postseason in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1991-1992. That’s exactly why bookmakers expect the team to struggle to win nine games. [Super Bowl: 33/1 | NFC: 18/1]
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Notes
Win Totals for the AFC are available here.
Full Strength of Schedule data can be found at ESPN.
All odds – including over/under and Futures – have been supplied by Bovada.
The 2013 NFL Season kicks-off on Thursday, Sept. 5, with the Baltimore Ravens traveling to the Mile High City to take on the Denver Broncos.
