NFL Championship Weekend: Picking the games

There are only four teams remaining in the case of the Vince Lombardi Trophy. By the end of Sunday, we will know which two go on to fight it out in Super Bowl LIII.

In the NFC, it’s the New Orleans Saints playing host to the Los Angeles Rams. New Orleans is a three-point favorite on the afternoon, with Vegas seeing the line move a half-point in favor the Rams. Los Angeles comes into the game having beaten the Dallas Cowboys last weekend, while the Saints moved past the Philadelphia Eagles.

The spread is the same for the AFC Championship Game. The Kansas City Chiefs are laying a field goal against the New England Patriots at Arrowhead Stadium, with that venue hosting its first conference championship game ever. The line hasn’t budged once all week, with money coming in well for both clubs.

So who wins and who covers on Sunday? Here are the picks…

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-3)

These two teams saw each other back in Week 9, but things were much different then. The Saints were showcasing a high-flying offense and a suspect defense. These days, the roles are reversed. New Orleans hasn’t allowed 30 points since that Week 9 game against the Rams (save for Week 17 when it played backups), while the offense has mustered 30 points only once since the start of December. Still, the Saints are the better team, and while the Rams are dangerous, it’s an almost impossible chore to go into the Superdome this time of year and win.

Los Angeles has a chance if it can run the ball effectively with the duo of C.J. Anderson and Todd Gurley, but the smart move here is to swallow the points and roll with the Saints.

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

The Patriots are the gold standard, but in this matchup, they aren’t the better team. Kansas City finally shook off its playoff shackles last weekend by hammering the Colts, and the Chiefs now ready for their first Super Bowl appearance since 1969. Kansas City and New England played a classic in Week 6 at Gillette Stadium, with the Patriots winning 43-40. This time, though, New England is without Josh Gordon while the Chiefs will have Justin Houston, Eric Berry and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif in the lineup.

It’s tough to imagine considering the history of both franchises, but the Chiefs are the superior team, at home. Look for Kansas City to win going away behind Patrick Mahomes and a defense that is suddenly beginning to play good football.