Over or Under? AFC West Win Totals

Von Miller’s impending suspension could be a problem for the Broncos.

In a little over two weeks the Denver Broncos will take to the field against the defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens in the NFL’s Thursday night curtain raiser. The rematch of last season’s AFC divisional playoff, which the Ravens took in overtime, will usher in another season of competitive gridiron combat and feverish betting action.

One division that will be particularly interesting to watch is the AFC West. Last season the division’s four representatives combined for an 88-104 (.458) record, making it the worst division in all of football. Three of the four finished with a losing record, including the Kansas City Chiefs, who finished tied for the league’s worst record at 2-14.

However, there is sunshine on the horizon. This season could mark a return to form for the lowly Chiefs, who have installed Andy Reid as head coach. The San Diego Chargers, who finished 7-9 last season, have potential to improve, which leaves the Oakland Raiders as the division’s weak link. Of course, all of this is in theory and could be blown out of the water by the end of Week 1.

Ahead of Week 1, BettingSports.com takes a look at some of the betting action taking place surrounding the AFC West, particularly the win totals available for each team. In this preview we’ll offer our suggestions of how we think these bets will play out. We start with the division favorites.

Note: All odds are provided by Bovada and are accurate as of August 20.

Denver Broncos

Win Total: 11 ½ | Over: -115 | Under: -115

Things were going swimmingly for the Broncos this offseason. After putting together a (surprising) 13-3 record last season, tied for best in the NFL, Peyton Manning and Co. immediately found themselves at the top of bookmakers’ lists for the upcoming campaign. That potent offense, which was improved with the addition of former New England Patriots wide receiver Wes Welker, and a defense that hardly took any prisoners seemed enough to propel the Mile High club to ultimate glory.

But the waters are rarely even when it comes to the NFL, as the Broncos learned. First a tardy agent resulted in the club could not re-signing DE Elvis Dumervil, responsible for 11 sacks last season. He’ll be lining up against the Broncos in the September 5 season opener. Then came the saga surrounding LB Von Miller.

Miller, who led the team with 18.5 sacks last season, continues to await punishment for violating the NFL’s drug policy. Recent reports suggest that punishment may come in the form of a six-game ban. That could be huge for Denver’s defense and even bigger for the team’s Super Bowl asperations.

However, the team may have a lifeline when play finally kicks off. The Broncos face the easiest strength of schedule (.430) in the league, partly a result of playing in a weak division last year, partly a result of playing a bottom light AFC South, and partly because of the NFC East’s desire to beat up on itself. Relying on the schedule could be dangerous though; there’s plenty of potential for improvement from many of Denver’s opponents.

Still, the Mile High City remains a major advantage and Manning’s arm will earn wins of its own accord. The team’s success may come down to how it fares on the road against the New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots and Houston Texans.

Verdict: Take the over. To win this bet, Denver needs to win 12. The list of road games above is tough but you have to expect the team to pick up at least two wins there. There doesn’t appear to be any major threats at home, so combined they should be able to go at least 12-4 as the defense shores itself up and Manning leads the offense.

Kansas City Chiefs

Win Total: 7 ½ | Over: -140 | Under: +110

After a miserable season saw the Chiefs ‘earn’ the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft, hope has returned to the City of Fountains. The arrival of head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Alex Smith has revitalized a fan base that hasn’t had much to cheer since Marty Schottenheimer left town following the 1998 season.

In the 14 years since Schottenheimer’s exit, the Chiefs have made the postseason just three times and have tallied a .500 record or better six times. Last season’s 2-14 record tied a franchise low. So can the Chiefs turn it around?

Shrewd offseason moves have certainly made the Chiefs a better team. In addition to Smith, the team also brought in OT Eric Winston, CB Sean Smith, CB Dunta Robinson and TE Anthony Fasano, whilst re-signing WR Dwayne Bowe and slapping the franchise tag on OT Brandon Albert. No. 1 overall pick OT Eric Fisher will help up front too. The club also made a trade for WR A.J. Jenkins this week, but don’t be surprised if second year receiver doesn’t make a splash; he didn’t in San Francisco last season.

The Chiefs will win more than two games this season. In fact, they could have two wins by the end of Week 2. But can they win eight and beat the current win total? The Chiefs’ schedule looks manageable, but eight wins might be one too many. Bu then again, if San Diego and Oakland continue to struggle, eight wins may be manageable.

Verdict: Take the under. The Chiefs will improve but winning eight will be tough. Out of the division, those teams that immediately look beatable (Tennessee, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Philadelphia) will all have home field advantage, and in the NFL, home field can be crucial.

Oakland Raiders

Win Total: 5 ½ | Over: +125 | Under: -155

Over the past decade, the Oakland Raiders have averaged five wins a season. During that time, the club’s best finish was 8-8, a marker it reached both in the 2010 and 2011 seasons. The team’s worst record was 2-14, achieved in 2006. This year’s Raiders’ side resembles the 2006 team more than it does the 2010-11 sides.

The Raiders’ front office elected to bring in Matt Flynn at quarterback after Carson Palmer was traded to the Arizona Cardinals this offseason. Defensive additions included S Charles Woodson, LB Kevin Burnett, CB Tracy Porter and LB Nick Roach. On paper these are upgrades, but all are over the age of 27, with Woodson (36) and Burnett (30) in their 30s.

Bovada’s most recent Football Futures have the Raiders at 250/1 to win Super Bowl XLVIII, tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars for the longest odds in the league. With this team seemingly in either an about-to-rebuild or lost-beyond-all-help mode, it’s not hard to see.

Like the rest of the AFC West, the Raiders have an easy strength of schedule (.469), but that won’t mean a thing come playing time. Looking ahead at the schedule, visits from Jacksonville and Tennessee are about as easy as it gets. On the road, we could be looking at a 0-8 team here.

Verdict: Take the under. Even if the Raiders get some luck along the way and pull of a few upsets, winning six games still looks out of the question. A franchise worse 1-15 looks more likely.

San Diego Chargers

Win Total: 7 ½ | Over: -105 | Under: -125

San Diego began last season 3-1 and ended the campaign going 3-1. Sadly for the Southern Californian side, a 1-7 record between these bookends was so miserable that the Chargers were long out of contention. Head coach Norv Turner was given his marching orders after a third straight year of missing the playoffs. He’ll be replaced by Mike McCoy, offensive coordinator in Denver last season.

The Chargers’ offseason wasn’t one to stand up and shout about. Long-time fan favorite CB Quentin Jammer departed for the Mile High City while LB Shaun Phillips and CB Antoine Casey both made for greener pastures. It wasn’t all bad news though. The team did bring in Dwight Freeney at linebacker, and whilst he may be 33-years-old, he brings a locker room presence that could stop this team boiling over. The addition of OT D.J. Fluker via the draft is a good move, while adding LB Manti Te’o could prove positive.

But make no bones about it; this is not a San Diego team that will contend. In fact, this is a San Diego side that may be looking to completely rebuild sooner rather than later. Will this rebuilding include Philip Rivers?

In terms of this season’s win total, the Chargers are a nightmare to pick. Rivers alone has the ability to guide the team to eight wins (and more) but will he get the support of the offensive line that was so lacking last season? Will the Chargers simply fold again like they have done for three straight years?

Verdict: Take the under. The Chargers’ schedule suggests they may start with a decent record, but the second half is going to be tough. Road trips to Philadelphia, Miami and Kansas City may be tougher than expected, while home games against Houston, Dallas, Indianapolis, Denver, and the New York Giants, while potentially winnable, don’t look favorable.

For more NFL team prop bets from Bovada, click here.