Saints, Niners Clash This Sunday
The New Orleans Saints host the San Francisco 49ers Sunday afternoon.
While much of this week’s attention has been on the big showdown in the AFC West, the NFC is serving up a matchup of its own that could easily prove to be the game of the week.
The New Orleans Saints host the San Francisco 49ers at the Louisiana Superdome Sunday in a showdown between two teams expecting to make the playoffs. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET.
As things currently stand, New Orleans (7-2) are top of the NFC South and just one-game back of the NFC-leading Seattle Seahawks (9-1) in the conference standings. San Francisco (6-3) meanwhile occupies the second Wild Card berth, having fallen to the Carolina Panthers (6-3) – currently sitting in the first Wild Card place – last Sunday.
Both teams will be keen to secure victory Sunday.
New Orleans needs a win to stay ahead of a surging Panthers side that has won six of its last seven contests. With just a one-game lead in the NFC South, a loss on Sunday coupled with a Panthers win on Monday Night Football would see the two sides move into a tie at the top of the division.
A loss for San Francisco would see the team move perilously close to a trailing pack that includes the Arizona Cardinals (5-4), Chicago Bears (5-4), and Green Bay Packers (5-4). While the Niners own a tiebreaker against all three of those teams, you can bet Jim Harbaugh and Co. would rather have some space between themselves and the rest of the conference’s Wild Card hopefuls.
The Saints have been dominant at home this season, recording a 5-0 record and outscoring opponents to the tune of 176-75. The team hasn’t trailed in the second half at the Superdome in the last four games, and only trailed for four second half minutes in their home-opener against the Atlanta Falcons.
The Niners will look to somehow stop the Saints’ prolific offense while attending to their own offensive issues. Reports emerged this week that Aldon Smith is expected to play increased minutes after returning to action last weekend, while Colin Kaepernick brushed aside criticism from former-NFL quarterback Trent Dilfer.
One player the Niners would like to see get a lot of the ball is Frank Gore. Gore is averaging 77.8 yards per game, the third-best average of his career. Sunday’s game against the Saints presents a huge opportunity to run though, in theory at least.
The Saints are allowing 117.7 yards per game, ranking the defense 23rd in the league. Four teams have breached the 100-yard rushing mark against Sean Payton’s side: the New York Jets (198 yards), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (160 yards), New England Patriots (141 yards), and Miami Dolphins (115 yards). Even in last week’s blowout win, the Dallas Cowboys showed it was possible to run the football against the Saints. Had that game not flipped heavily in favor of New Orleans, the Cowboys would likely have continued to run the ball. San Francisco therefore needs to ensure this doesn’t become a lopsided score.
New Orleans’ upcoming schedule will truly test the team’s mettle. After Sunday’s game with the Niners, the Saints will travel to Atlanta for Thursday Night Football (Nov. 21), followed by a trip to Seattle for Monday Night Football (Dec. 2). After that, they return home for the first of two meetings in 15 days with divisional rivals Carolina (Dec. 8, Dec. 22).
San Francisco conversely has a very manageable schedule to close out the season. Homes games against Atlanta and the St. Louis Rams and road trips to the Washington Redskins and Tampa Bay all look winnable, leaving just a home game with the Seahawks and an intra-division road game against the Cardinals as the only potential stumbling blocks. Of course, the problem for the Niners is that Seattle looks to already have the NFC West sewn up, thanks to a two-game lead and a tiebreaker advantage.
A win on Sunday might be more vital for New Orleans then, but a win certainly wouldn’t harm San Francisco’s playoff hopes.
San Francisco 49ers vs. New Orleans Saints odds for 11/17/2013
Playing at home, New Orleans (-170) is favored over San Francisco (+150) on the moneyline.
The Niners have a two-game winning streak against the Saints though, including a 31-21 win in last year’s regular season meeting and a 36-32 victory in the divisional playoffs following the 2011 season. Prior to that, the Saints had won six straight and nine of 11 meetings.
The spread opened at 2.5 but has subsequently shifted to 3. With more than 48 hours to go until kickoff, expect some more movement on the line.
Both teams have posted an identical 6-3-0 ATS record this season, making this one a little tougher to choose. New Orleans is 5-0-0 ATS at home while San Francisco is 3-1-0 ATS on the road. The Saints are 10-5-0 ATS in their last 15 meetings with the Niners.
The over/under opened at 47.5. With both teams ranked in the league’s top 10 in points per game, this could easily turn into a shootout. New Orleans (5-4-0) has marginally favored the over this season and has seen the total go over in four straight games. San Francisco (5-4-0) has also narrowly favored the over and prior to this week’s low-scoring affair with the Panthers had seen the total go over in three straight.
While all signs seem to point to the total going over, history may put the halters on that trend. 12 of San Francisco’s last 17 trips to the Big Easy have seen the total go under. In addition, the two sides have been very good at stopping opponents scoring this season. San Francisco has allowed 17.2 PPG (4th) while New Orleans has allowed 18.1 PPG (5th). That should give you some food for thought.
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