San Antonio vs. Golden State: Betting Considerations

The Spurs and Warriors will collide in the Western Conference semifinals.

After contrasting opening round series, the San Antonio Spurs and Golden State Warriors will meet in the Western Conference semifinals starting Monday.

The Spurs made short work of the Lakers, ending a miserable season for the Los Angeles outfit while looking as efficient as has become expected over the last 15 years or so. The Warriors had a tougher time of it with the Denver Nuggets, but ultimately ran out the underdog winners of a fascinating series.

Few give the Warriors much hope heading into this series and for good reason, as we shall see. But Mark Jackson’s crew of upstarts shouldn’t be written-off just yet. That’s a mistake pundits and Denver fans have already learned.

To get you ready for the series, BettingSports.com takes a look at some of the trends and factors that should be considered before any money is put down on either side. While most of you will be backing San Antonio, there’re a few gems in here that might make you reconsider some of the specifics.

Golden State shared the spoils with San Antonio this season, something that has happened in a long time.

Historically: Playoff Head-to-Head

The Spurs and Warriors have a very short playoff history; the two sides have met just once in the postseason.

During the first round of the 1991 playoffs, the No. 7 seeded Golden State Warriors upset the No.2 seeded San Antonio Spurs to advance to the Western Conference semifinals. The Spurs actually took Game 1 in that series only to lose three straight, including double-digit losses in the second and fourth games.

The days of Run TMC were a long time ago though. The Warriors have advanced this far just once (2007) since then, while San Antonio has become a mainstay of the semifinals round with 15 appearances. Still, historical precedent has been set.

Historically: Western Conference Semifinals

Since joining the Western Conference for the 1980-81 season, the San Antonio Spurs have missed the playoffs just four times. Across that 33 year span, the side has played in the Western Conference semifinals no fewer than 19 times, including 16 since the playoffs were expanded to 16 teams.

The Spurs’ overall record during this time is 57-50 (.533), and the team has advanced to the Western Conference Finals on 10 occasions, which equates to approximately 53 percent of the time.

More recently – notably the period in which Tim Duncan has been with the side (since 1997) – the side has advanced seven times from 12 semifinals (.583), including three of the last four, and four of the last six tries.

Golden State’s history of Western Conference semifinals appearances is a little less glowing.

Since joining the conference in 1962 following relocation from Philadelphia, the San Francisco/Golden State Warriors have appeared in the semifinals round 13 times, collating a 30-40 (.429) record in the process. The team has advanced to the conference finals on just four occasions, or 31 percent of the time.

However, things look even bleaker when you focus on (fairly) recent history. Since the playoffs expanded to include an opening round, the Warriors have advanced to the semifinals on just five occasions (1977, 1987, 1989, 1991, 2007), recording a 7-20 (.259) record. The side failed to advance to the conference finals in each of those seasons. What’s more, Golden State has been eliminated at this stage by a series score of 4-1 in each of its last four appearances.

History certainly appears to be against Golden State making a first Western Conference finals appearance since 1976.

Head-to-Head (Season)

Let’s bring things a little more up-to-date. The Spurs and Warriors met four times during the regular season:

Jan. 18: Golden State 88, San Antonio 95

Feb. 22: San Antonio 101, Golden State 107

Mar. 20: Golden State 93, San Antonio 104

Apr. 15: San Antonio 106, Golden State 116

Whilst the split series might not seem that surprising in the wake of Golden State’s impressive regular season and its first round defeat of the Nuggets, it really is.

Prior to this season, the Warriors’ last victory over the San Antonio Spurs came on Jan. 7, 2008. That translates as a 16-game losing streak. So that Feb. 22 victory should be given a little fanfare at least.

The home team successfully defended its court in all four games, which could be a telling factor going forward. With home court advantage in this round, San Antonio simply has to keep that trend rolling. Things look even more ominous for the Warriors, who have not won a game in San Antonio since Feb. 14, 1997, a stretch of 29 games.

The favorite was 3-1 during the series, with Golden State picking up an underdog win in the first game played in Oakland (the second game of the series).

Will the Spurs’ long run of good playoff form be enough to see off the underdog Warriors?

Against the Spread

When the two sides take to the court on Monday night (9:30 pm ET) for Game 1, something has to give. During the postseason so far, both San Antonio (4-0-0 ATS) and Golden State (6-0-0 ATS) have covered the spread in every game.

During the regular season, San Antonio recorded a 39-41-2 ATS record, going 19-20-2 ATS at home and 20-21-0 ATS on the road. The Spurs were 34-35-2 ATS as the favorite and 5-6-0 ATS as the underdog.

Golden State compiled a 42-38-2 ATS record, going 23-18-0 ATS at home and 19-20-2 ATS on the road. The Warriors were 23-19-0 ATS as the favorite and 8-18-0 ATS as an underdog.

Golden State earned the edge over San Antonio in the season head-to-head, recording a 3-1-0 ATS record against the Spurs. The favorite was 2-2-0 ATS during the series, while the home side was 3-1-0 ATS.

The Warriors impressively picked up five underdog wins against the spread in the opening round against Denver.

Over/Under

The over/under is looking like tricky betting ahead of the series.

San Antonio (36-45-1) favored the under during the regular season, while Golden State (46-35-1) favored the over, essentially cancelling each other out.

During the postseason, both teams split the over/under evenly during their season, again adding to the murkiness of the picture.

However, there is some light at the end of the tunnel for bettors. During the four-game regular seasons series, the total went under three times and over just once.

Schedule

GAME 1: Golden State at San Antonio (Mon, May 6, 9:30 pm ET)

GAME 2: Golden State at San Antonio (Wed, May 8, 9:30 pm ET)

GAME 3: San Antonio at Golden State (Fri, May 10, 10:30 pm ET)

GAME 4: San Antonio at Golden State (TBD)

GAME 5: Golden State at San Antonio (TBD)*

GAME 6: San Antonio at Golden State (TBD)*

GAME 7: Golden State at San Antonio (TBD)*

*If necessary