Texans taking big chance on Bill O’Brien

The Houston Texans signed head coach Bill O’Brien to a five-year contract extension on Saturday morning, making it one o the biggest gambles in the young history of the franchise.

O’Brien came into his current post at the start of the 2014 season, and promptly led Houston to a trio fo 9-7 campaigns, including two AFC South titles. This year, Houston looked to be a playoff contender behind dynamic rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson, only to finish 4-12 after Watson tore his ACL in a November practice.

Going into the offseason, there was speculation that with general manager Rick Smith stepping aside to be with his ill wife, O’Brien could be out the door. Instead, Houston is doubling down on the embattled head coach, hoping that a O’Brien-Watson marriage can take this team to the promised land. Owner Bob McNair stated his belief in O’Brien with a statement, per NFL.com:

“Bill O’Brien has been a tremendous leader for us these last four years and we believe in his vision for the team moving forward,” McNair said. “Bill is a terrific teacher that the players respect. We have a lot of trust in him to build a unified, championship culture and we’re thrilled to have him as our head coach into the future.”

All that said, the Texans may have made a significant mistake. Houston has won the aforementioned two division titles under O’Brien, but that is more of a commentary on the AFC South than it is about the strength of the Texans.

This offseason, Houston traded up 13 spots in the first round to select Watson out of the University of Clemson, then spent the next four months listening to O’Brien talk about Tom Savage being his starter. Despite seeing him in dozens of practices and four preseason games, O’Brien went with Savage in the regular-season opener against the Jacksonville Jaguars. He promptly pulled Savage after one hideous half and then saw Watson become an instant star.

Additionally, O’Brien cost the Texans at least two signature wins in 2017. In Week 3, Houston had the New England Patriots on the ropes in Foxborough and needed just a yard deep in New England’s territory to seal the game. Instead, Houston kicked a field goal, and Tom Brady predictably won the game with a fourth-quarter comeback.

A month later, the Seattle Seahawks were trailing late against Houston. Despite Watson throwing for more than 400 yards on the day, the Texans ran the ball on 3rd and 4, resulting in a punt. To the shock of nobody but O’Brien, Russell Wilson drove down the field for a 41-38 win in the final seconds.

Point is, O’Brien has enjoyed some success and the Texans looked dangerous with Watson. Still, it’s impossible to ignore bad judgment in both evaluation of the roster and late-game situations. As Houston gets better, those mistakes will only become more costly.