The Sharp Report – July 7, 2014

Tim Lincecum took the mound for the San Francisco Giants for the first time on Sunday night since his no hitter. Tim was facing the very team that he no hit, but the Giants still found themselves as underdogs in the game.

It has been seen before, you will have a lopsided match-up, and it seems as though that the wrong team is favored. I don’t recall ever seeing a case where a team that was no hit by a starting pitcher being favored against him a week later. This baffled sharps and the public alike, how could the Padres be favored against the Giants and starter Tim Lincecum who no hit them a week ago?

The rule of thumb here is, go with the odds makers, which in this case meant take the Padres. How would this turn out on Sunday night?

Please refer to my first post in this series for a list of recommended sites to aid you in your handicapping.

7/7 Early Moves:

Here are some lines that were hit by sharp groups early enough this morning to make this report. I have not had time to research games myself, so I am not recommending that you try to find these numbers and tail the plays at this time. These are listed to show you what has happened so far this morning, always do your own research on these before following along.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals (Over 6.5)
Key Line Move @ 8:02 am EST

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals (PIT ML)
Key Line Move @ 8:35 am EST

7/6 Recap:

Early Moves:

Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals (Under 7) – Win
Key Line Move @ 8:10 am EST

Sharps were all on board for this move as it got slammed early Sunday morning. Even though the Nationals have had hot bats of late, this move came down to pitching. The Cubs’ starter, Jake Arrieta,  has given just three runs and 14 hits over his last five outings. He has won four consecutive strong outings and hasn’t allowed more than five hits in any of his last five trips to the mound. The Nationals’ starter, Jordan Zimmermann, has won just one of his last four turns despite allowing just seven runs in 27 innings during the stretch.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves (Under 7.5) – Win
Key Line Move @ 9:15 am EST

There were groups on both sides of this line, as is usually the case with 7/7.5. The starters on both sides have been great, the only worry here of this game going over to me are the bats of the Atlanta Braves. The Braves have scored five or more runs in their last nine games.

The Diamondbacks’ starter, Wade Miley, struck out 10 in eight innings Tuesday at Pittsburgh, allowing two runs on four hits with no walks in a no-decision. Miley permitted one earned run in seven innings against the Braves on June 7, receiving a no-decision in a game that Arizona won 4-3. The Braves’ starter, Alex Wood, has made two strong starts since returning to the starting rotation, giving up three runs on nine hits with two walks and 11 strikeouts in 13 innings. It’s always been my belief that great pitching beats great bats, and the under was the play for me.

New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins (Over 8.5) – Win
Key Line Move @ 12:15 pm EST

I didn’t completely understand this move, both teams have scoring issues at times and there were two capable pitchers on the mound. The Yankees’ starter, Hiroki Kuroda, fell in his last start to Tampa Bay in hiswhile giving up two runs and nine hits in eight innings. Kuroda has given up two or fewer earned runs in five of his last eight turns. The Twins’ starter, Ricky Nolasco, defeated Kansas City on Tuesday while allowing one run and eight hits in six innings. Nolasco beat the Yankees in his first career start against them on May 30 when he yielded one run and seven hits in six innings.

This was a no play for me personally.

Late Moves:

San Francisco Giants vs San Diego  Padres (SD ML) – Loss
Key Line Move @ 2:10 pm EST

Clearly the most baffling line and move on Sunday’s card, Tim Lincecum of the Giants was going up against the Padres who he no hit just a week ago, and he was the underdog!  When these things happen, you have to assume that someone has some information, and the usual move is to follow the odds makers. Follow the odds makers is what the sharps did, as the line jumped from -122 to -134.

Lincecum enters Sunday’s contest riding a 17-inning scoreless streak and is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in two starts against San Diego this season. The Padres’ starter Jesse Hahn struck out a career-high nine batters in five scoreless innings against Cincinnati on Monday, and he hasn’t allowed more than two runs in four of his first five starts. Hahn faced the Giants on June 24 and earned the win after yielding two runs over six frames.

To me the under is the play, the line is just baffling to me.

Chris Sharp is a professional sports handicapper and daily contributor to BettingSports.com. He can be found on Twitter @CSharp_Picks and on his web site IvyLeaguePicks.com.