The Sharp Report – June 25, 2014
Most sharp groups stayed away from this game as they felt there wasn’t a clear cut angle on either side of the money line or total. My group loved the under because both pitchers, the ageless wonder Bartolo Colon and Scott Kazmir have been lights out lately, shutting down batters like they were facing Little Leaguers. On top of that, the Met’s have been having trouble getting men across the plate as of late. In hind sight we should have stayed away from this game like the others did, because Kazmir was touched for 7 earned runs in three innings and the game soared over.
Most of the moves today were not unanimous, some were down right confusing as I will discuss in each write up. Sharps have been having a tough time as of late and people are trying anything to get an advantage over the books, including yours truly.
Please refer to my first post in this series for a list of recommended sites to aid you in your handicapping.
6/25 Early Moves:
Here are some lines that were hit by sharp groups early enough this morning to make this report. I have not had time to research games myself, so I am not recommending that you try to find these numbers and tail the plays at this time. These are listed to show you what has happened so far this morning, always do your own research on these before following along.
Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers (DET ML)
Key Line Move @ 8:18 am EST
St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies (Under 10.5) – Loss
Key Line Move @ 9:00 am EST
Many sharp bettors agreed on this move even though it goes against the well known strategy of never betting a Rockies home game under. My group and I didn’t touch this one for that very reason, and to be honest we didn’t understand why other groups made the move. In De La Rosa’s last start for the Rockies, he allowed eight runs, six hits and five walks. In Shelby Miller’s last outing for the Cardinals, he gave up four runs and 7 hits in just 6 2/3 innings. Couple those pitching stats with the fact that St. Louis’ bats were hot in the series opener when they scored eight runs, this game sounded more like an over to us.
Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers (TEX ML) – Loss
Key Line Move @ 9:41 am EST
Groups were on both sides of the money line in this game, but the biggest move came in support of the Texas Rangers just a little before 10 am EST. The Tigers, winners of four straight came in to Texas hoping to add on to the Rangers’ season high five game losing streak. After studying the stats for this game, the only thing I could come up with that backs up this move is a trend called “The Rule of 4”. The Rule of Four shows that when two teams meet and the away team is on a winning streak of four or more and the away team is on a losing streak of four or more, the home team wins at close to 60% clip. This is mostly used by trend bettors, obviously, which I am certainly not. This game to me was a no play.
Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros (ATL ML) – Win
Key Line Move @ 5:40 pm EST
One swift move came in by multiple groups just over an hour before game time favoring the Atlanta Braves. Here the offense has been in a slump for both teams, so we looked at the pitchers. Braves pitcher Aaron Harang has started against the Astros 27 times in his career and has gone 14-9 with a 4.13 ERA. In 10 years, Houston pitcher Scott Feldman has only started against the Braves twice, going 0-1 with a 4.63 ERA. The groups gave the edge here to Harang and the Braves who’s offense has been slightly less dreadful than the Astros’. The under here looked like a solid play as well.
Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles (CWS ML) – Win
Key Line Move @ 5:45 pm EST
Sharp groups were on both sides of this, but the strongest push came in around a quarter to six eastern time on the White Sox. There must have been some type of inside info passed along to the groups that moved on the White Sox because on paper everything pointed to the Orioles. The White Sox’s pitcher Jose Quintana hasn’t posted a victory in a month! These are the moves that I love to tail, because when all signs point to one team winning and the move is on the other side, there is some serious information involved and the move usually ends up being a winner. This was a case of market watching and knowing when to hijack a move for us, as it was a free play for our clients and followers.