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The Sharp Report – June 28, 2014

Johnny Cueto vs the Giants

It’s pretty safe to say that the Giants don’t like Johnny Cueto and that Johnny Cueto doesn’t particularly care. It what was billed as Friday’s pitching match-up for the night, Johnny Cueto and the Reds would take on Madison Bumgarner and the Giants.

Friday’s MLB wagering card was good looking overall but was definitely highlighted by the Cincinnati / San Francisco pitching match up and the total under. I get into the move more in the game description below, but I can’t remember the last time that a total has dropped to 5.5 in some sports books. Johnny Cueto and Madison Bumgarner had high expectations to meet for sure.

Please refer to my first post in this series for a list of recommended sites to aid you in your handicapping.

6/28 Early Moves:

Here are some lines that were hit by sharp groups early enough this morning to make this report. I have not had time to research games myself, so I am not recommending that you try to find these numbers and tail the plays at this time. These are listed to show you what has happened so far this morning, always do your own research on these before following along.

Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers (Under 9)
Key Line Move @ 9:00 am EST

6/27 Recap:

Early Moves:

St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers (Under 7.5) – Win
Key Line Move @ 3:45 am EST

After last night’s 1-0 effort, it isn’t hard to see why this move was made swiftly early Friday morning. Both of these teams have phenomenal pitching and have not put up much offense as of late. The Dodgers are allowing an average of 2.1 runs in the last 10 games. The Cardinals are losers of five of their last nine and have the offense to blame as they have scored a total of nine runs in those five losses. I did’t hear of any groups being on the over here, mostly one sided action.

Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants (Under 6.5) – Loss
Key Line Move @ 8:10 am EST

This was another early move that just kept going in one direction, I even saw this offered at 5.5 on some sports books, which is an unheard of number. Let’s take a look at why. The Giants have scored a total of seven runs over their last four games and face an uphill battle Friday against the Reds’ Johnny Cueto, who leads the majors with a 1.86 ERA. It’s pretty safe to say that if there is a reason this game goes over, it’s because of the Cincinnati bats. Trying to slow those bats will be the Giants’ starter Madison Bumgarner, who was great in his last start and has a good history against the Reds. Bumgarner comes in off of a one run, seven strike out, eight inning outing against the Diamondbacks, and held these Reds to just one run in eight innings in the beginning of June. I am personally staying away from this game, but I understand the move under (way under) and will be watching the game for sure.

Late Moves:

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles / Game 2 (Under 8.5) – Win
Key Line Move @ 6:15 pm EST

There was balanced action by the sharp groups on the total of the second game of the Tampa Bay / Baltimore double header. The Rays’ starter Jake Odorizzi has raised his game as of late only allowing three runs in his last twenty innings. We will find out just how improved he is when he faces off against the Orioles who have owned him over his career to the tune of five runs in just ten innings. There is an identical situation on the other side as the Orioles’ starter Chris Tillman was great in his last start, but has been owned by the Rays with a record of 2-6 and an ERA that approaches five. There was too much uncertainty here for me to move on it personally, but it will be an interesting game to watch and note the outcome of.

Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals (Over 8.5) – Win
Key Line Move @ 6:30 pm EST

The line movements on this game were crazy, there was a sharp move early in the day on the over, then one mid-day on the under, and then the final big move on the over right around 6:30 pm on the east coast. Movement like this makes a market analyst type handicapper such as myself go crazy, for the most part I just take note and then refer back to the notes if the situation ever happens again. In my experience, it is clear that the last move of a game that has sharp action on both sides is the side that you want to be on the majority of the time. To make this situation more confusing, on paper it looks like a clear under.

The Angels’ starter Matt Shoemaker has posted two great starts back to back, going 2-0 with a 1.72 ERA. He gave up two earned runs and struck out six in five innings of a no-decision against Kansas City at home on May 24. The Royals’ starter Jason Vargas has recorded six straight quality starts.He has posted a 2.56 ERA in 14 games against the Angels, including a solid appearance in Anaheim on May 25 in which he allowed a run in 6 1/3 innings.

Chris Sharp is a professional sports handicapper and daily contributor to BettingSports.com. He can be found on Twitter @CSharp_Picks and on his web site IvyLeaguePicks.com.

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