Home Run Derby: Oddsmakers Favor Fielder

The 2013 MLB All-Star weekend officially kicks off tomorrow in New York. In addition to the Futures Game and the All-Star Legends & Celebrity Softball Game, there are a few fan events on the schedule over the weekend until the bats start swinging at the Home Run Derby on Monday night.

This year’s lineup has a good mix of proven veterans, several of whom have won in the past, and young guns looking to make a lasting impression on a national stage. Oddsmakers at Bovada had to choose between youth and experience—and the consensus seems to be that there is no real consensus.

Slugger Prince Fielder, who won in 2012, is the early favorite to win it again this year, but he barely edged out first timers Chris Davis and Bryce Harper. Let’s break it down to see where everyone stands.

Prince Fielder, Detroit Tigers: 7/2

Detroit slugger Prince Fielder won the HR Derby in 2012, three years after his first victory in 2009. The 7/2 odds make him the favorite to win on Monday—but not by much. Fielder has a 29 percent chance to three-peat this year, which would tie him with Ken Griffey Jr. for most wins ever and make him the second player to ever win back-to-back derbies.

So sayeth your gambling overlords!

Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles: 15/4

Baltimore bat Chris Davis will be participating in the HR Derby for the first time in 2013—he was also named an All-Star for the first time of his career this year. His 15/4 odds put him slightly behind Fielder, with a 27 percent chance to de-thrown the king. Davis might want to get the royal wardrobe taken in a bit if he wins this.

So sayeth your gambling overlords!

Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals: 5/1

Washington’s sophomore sensation Bryce Harper rounds out the top three with 5/1 odds. His season has been partially hampered by injuries, but he and his Nationals finally look like they’ve gotten the train back on the tracks and are poised to make a second-half run after the All-Star break. Harper’s got a 20 percent chance of knocking off the king…or the Prince, if we’re getting technical.

So sayeth your gambling overlords!

Yoenis Cespedes, Oakland A’s & Robinson Cano, New York Yankees:11/2

New York Yankee Robinson Cano is participating in the HR Derby for the third consecutive year, having won it in 2011, while this will be the first crack at it for Oakland’s Yoenis Cespedes. Experience alone isn’t enough to give Cano the edge over the surging sophomore, Cespedes. They both are saddled with the same 11/2 odds, which give them an 18 percent chance of winning.

So sayeth your gambling overlords!

David Wright, New York Mets: 15/2

This will be Mets star David Wright’s second appearance in the HR Derby, so he can draw upon experience, but he’ll have to go pretty far back in the memory bank if he wants to. It’s been seven years since he finished runner-up to Ryan Howard at Pittsburgh’s PNC Park in 2006. Wright’s 15/2 odds give him just a 13 percent chance of winning in 2013—although he’ll be the crowd favorite because this year’s All-Star game is taking place in his house.

So sayeth your gambling overlords!

Michael Cuddyer, Colorado Rockies: 9/1

And bringing up the rear is Colorado’s Michael Cuddyer, who is participating in his first HR Derby at the tender age of 34. This two-time All-Star is a definitive underdog with his 9/1 odds giving him just an 11 percent chance of emerging victorious. Meaning…Cuddyer has them all right where he wants them.

So sayeth your gambling overlords!

Pedro Alvarez, of the adorably competent Pittsburgh Pirates, was named as a replacement participant today, but the oddsmakers have yet to make a ruling on this one. However, unless he has more favorable odds than David Wright, the substitution is unlikely to have significant impact on any of the front-runners.

Then again…those Buccos sure are surprising this season…so you might want to lay down a few bucks on Alvarez.