MNF: How The Bears Can Upset The Green Bay Packers

The Chicago Bears started the season 3-0 and things quickly began to go downhill.  Both quarterback Jay Cutler and defensive leader Lance Briggs are down with injuries.  Even with Cutler at the helm, however it was clear that this Bears squad was not going to be the force it was last year.  They are now a depleted teams sitting at 4-3 with both the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers ahead of them in the AFC North standings.

On Monday Night Football, the Bears will take on the No. 1 team in the division, the Green Bay Packers.  A healthy Chicago team would struggle against the Packers, let alone a Bears squad dealing with some key injuries.

The odds opened with the Packers as the 8-point favorites and have since risen on most sportsbooks to between -10 to -11.  The Packers moneyline opened at a whopping -550.  The Bears have not beat the Packers against odds like that in nearly 50 years. Similarly, sports analysts are also not giving the Bears much of a chance to prevail over their division and personal rivals.

I’m not sure how Chicago will score without Jay Cutler, and I’m not sure how Chicago will keep Green Bay from scoring without Lance Briggs and some others.

-AFC Personnel Director Bob McGinn

Keeping Green Bay from scoring is a challenge regardless of who is on the field, considering the arm and accuracy of Aaron Rodgers. The Bears are on pace for a historic allowed-yards season. Rodgers could be happily marching down the field all Monday night.  The Bears should not kid themselves that they are going to be able to stifle this offense and keep them off the scoreboards.  Instead they need to stick to what they are good at, takeaways.

Last season, the Bears defense established a reputation for taking the ball away from its opponents.  It has not been as impactful this year, but they still sit with the fourth most forced takeaways in the NFC.  The Packers tend to lose when they turn over the ball.  In their two season losses they gave the ball away an average of three times.  If the Bears D’ can put the game back into the hands of their offense as much as possible, they could have a shot at winning.

Another realistic thing the Bears can do defense is simply have their rookies not make mistakes and step up, which is easier said than done.

The Bears are starting two rookie linebackers that are going to have to step up and make up for the terrible play of safeties Chris Conteand and Major Wright.  Ideally they will step up as well and have a surprisingly good game but that is something that is unlikely considering their track records.

On offense, there are three things the Bears can do to win this game.

First, the O-line has to simply keep the pressure off backup Josh McCown.  The Bears O-line has allowed the second-fewest sacks in the NFL. They will need to keep it up against the creative blitz packages of the Packers and keep McCown comfortable and make room for Matt Forte, which brings us to the second thing the Bears need to do on offense.

The Packers have one of the best rush defenses in the NFL, but the Bears will have to give Forte the opportunity to find a way to get some yards.  As previously stated, the Bears O-line is fantastic.  Perhaps Matt Forte will find a way to do something that the likes of Adrian Peterson and Frank Gore couldn’t and establish the run.  The Bears will need to persistently go back to Forte until he starts gaining ground, as a pass-first Bears offense is not going to beat the Packers.

Lastly, the Packers have gotten burned by a 40 yards or more punt return in their last three outings.  This has to have Devin Hesters mouth watering, who has the talent to give the Bears great field position.

Monday Night Football airs on ESPN and kickoff is at 8:40 p.m. ET.