The Sharp Report – June 17, 2014
When Verlander is hot, there is no better pitcher in baseball. When Verlander is cold, we make a lot of money, and lately we have made a lot of money. The reason for his struggles are unclear, but we really don’t care in the slightest. Every season Verlander has a cold streak for whatever reason, and you can always get a good price going against him. I will personally be fading him one more start before backing off, he will be back to the Verlander that we all know and fear by the All Star Break.
Please refer to my first post in this series for a list of recommended sites to aid you in your handicapping.
6/17 Early Moves:
Here are some lines that were hit by sharp groups early enough this morning to make this report. I have not had time to research games myself, so I am not recommending that you try to find these numbers and tail the plays at this time. These are listed to show you what has happened so far this morning, always do your own research on these before following along.
San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners (Under 7.5)
Key Line Move @ 7:40 am EST
Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays (Under 8)
Key Line Move @ 8:00 am EST
Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Indians (Under 9) – Win
Key Line Move @ 8:00 am EST
The line opened at 8.5, early money came in on the over to make the line move to 9 and then the sharp groups came in and got as much money down on the under as they could. Both starting pitchers do well against the other’s team, letting up a combined four runs in their previous match ups. Sixty percent of the public was on the over, making it a nice pay day for Las Vegas.
Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins (Under 7.5) – Loss
Key Line Move @ 8:30 am EST
The line opened at 7.5 and was only available for about three hours before all books had it down to 7. The starters combine for an 8 ERA when facing the other’s team, and with neither of them pitching lights out as of late, I stayed clear of this move personally. The public was split on this match up as well, wit 52% of the money coming in on the over.
New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals (Over 7.5) – Win
Key Line Move @ 11:30 am EST
The sharp groups agreed on this one, there was no back and forth with this line, which you will usually see with this key number. The Mets’ deGrom is still looking came in looking for his first major league victory and has given up a combined seven runs in his last two starts. St. Louis sent Carlos Martinez to the mound who has yet to find his role in the majors, he finds himself back to starting games after he managed to blow all five of his save attempts earlier this year. Over was the only play here with these two on the mound.
San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners (Over 7) – Loss
Key Line Move @ 6:50 pm EST
Opening at 7, bought down to 6.5, and then hit heavily to move the number to 7 or 7.5, it appears that the groups were having some fun with this one. The opener should have been at 8 in my opinion. The Mariners’ Young comes in with a 6.30 ERA in June, and Ross of the Padres has not pitched very well in June to date. The Mariners are hitting well of late, I see this as an eight run game.