The Sharp Report – June 20, 2014
In an unexpected pitcher’s duel, Zack Wheeler pitched his first complete game shut out on Thursday night.
There were a lot of groups that I am not directly associated with who were heavy on the Mets/Miami over on Thursday night. Zack Wheeler and Andrew Heaney had other plans, as the starters for the Mets and Marlins went toe to toe in an epic pitchers duel. It’s not hard to see why some sharps were heavy on the over here, Wheeler was shelled his last time out and Heaney was just called up from the minors on Wednesday. I got the chance to watch most of the game, and it was truly impressive as the Mets got the win 1-0. Keep an eye on both of these guys in their next appearance, especially Heaney, who may have very good value.
Please refer to my first post in this series for a list of recommended sites to aid you in your handicapping.
6/19 Recap:
Early Moves:
Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays (Under 7.5) – Win
Key Line Move @ 1:00 am EST
You had to be up pretty late last night to get a taste of this number, almost every book had 7.5 posted by dawn. McHugh for the Astros has struggled of late, but still holds an impressive ERA right around 3. Archer for the Rays has allowed a total of four earned runs in his last six starts. The bottom line here is that Tampa offers up no run support when Archer is on the mound, and he shuts down the opposition, both add up to a sharp play on the under.
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates (Over 7.5) – Loss
Key Line Move @ 1:45 am EST
The heavy action on this was the over, but as game time drew near, some people including myself considered under the better play here. Homer Bailey of the Reds is finally coming around to be the pitcher that we all know he can be. Homer has done OK against the Pirates, 8-5 with a 3.2 ERA. The Pirates sent Jeff Locke to the mound, who had only allowed three runs in his last fifteen innings. The Cincinnati bats were hot coming in, which is why groups were split on this, but good pitching beats good batting in the end. Groups that thought Locke would lay an egg hammered the over, while the rest of us cautiously played the under.
Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers (Under 8) – Win
Key Line Move @ 12:00 pm EST
This line bounced around quite a bit during the day, there was even enough money on the over to briefly move the total to 8.5. Danny Duffy of the Royals is in a groove right now, he hasn’t allowed a single run in two of his three previous games. Duffy’s only issue is that he has been owned by the Tigers of late, sporting a 1-3 record with an ERA over 4. The Tigers sent Anibal Sanchez to the mound, who is a winner of three straight and holds an ERA under 1 against the Royals. The under was the obvious choice for me here, but I understand the push on the over considering Duffy has had bad luck against Detroit in the past, and Detroit is a team that can put up runs in a hurry.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks (Under 8.5) – Win
Key Line Move @ 12:30 pm EST
There wasn’t any doubt about this move, once it dropped to 8 it was still on the edge of moving to 7.5 up until game time. There was enough sharp money on this that even with 60% of the public on the over, the line almost dropped a full point; that shows us that some seriously respected money came in on the under. The Brewer’s sent Yovai Gallardo to the mound who had allowed only one run  in his previous two starts combined. Gallardo had dominated Arizona historically going 6-0 with an ERA under 2. The Diamondbacks sent rookie Chase Anderson to the mound, who has been turning heads with a 5-1 record overall and 3-0 at home. I am not sure what the public was looking at here with all of that over money, but speaking for all of the sharp groups out there, thank you.
