The Sharp Report – June 22, 2014
I was discussing on Twitter the other night with some of my tweeps the fact that game overs are almost a sure thing in Rockies home games lately. When I saw who the Rockies were sending to the mound on Saturday, my reaction was a bit of shock. Friedrich, who had a short stint in the majors in 2012, has been getting hit hard down in the minor leagues recently. Is this really the guy that they chose to bring up to face the hard hitting Brewers? It seems to me that the Rockies owners and GM are OK with the fact that their games often reach ten to fifteen combined runs, games like these certainly draw a crowd and more TV viewers.
On a side note, I am crazy excited for the USA world cup match this evening, let’s get it done!!
Please refer to my first post in this series for a list of recommended sites to aid you in your handicapping.
6/22 Early Moves:
Here are some lines that were hit by sharp groups early enough this morning to make this report. I have not had time to research games myself, so I am not recommending that you try to find these numbers and tail the plays at this time. These are listed to show you what has happened so far this morning, always do your own research on these before following along.
Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels (Under 8)
Key Line Move @ 8:07 am EST
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins (Under 8) – Win
Key Line Move @ 7:45 am EST
Even though both of the starting pitchers came into this game in a bit of a rut, there was a consensus among most groups on the under in this game. The Mets’ Jacob deGrom pitches much better than his record indicates, I got the chance to watch him work in person about a month ago and was really impressed with his command and poise. He matches up really well against the Marlins’ lineup and was due for a quality start. On the other side, the Marlins sent Tom Koehler to the mound who just recently pitched eight innings of two hit ball against the offensively struggling Mets. This game looked like a 4-1 or 4-2 game when reviewed it, the total of 8 felt like it was a run or two too high. The public favored the over here slightly at 54%.
San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks (Under 9) – Loss
Key Line Move @ 8:20 am EST
Most groups stayed away from this game, but a few that I work with felt that there was a good angle on the under here. The Giants sent Ryan Vogelsong to the mound who has been smacked around a little bit as of late. Facing the struggling Diamondbacks looked like the perfect position for Vogelsong to turn it around and pitch a quality game. Brandon McCarthy took the mound for the Diamondbacks and was coming off of a strong outing against the hard hitting Brewers his last time out. We felt that this game was a case of two struggling teams with pitchers who had a great opportunity for quality starts and projected the final game outcome to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 4-3 Diamondbacks. There was even reverse line movement on this game, which we felt strengthened our case for the under; even with 61% of the public on the over, the line dropped to 8.5 and even down to 8 at some sports books.
Boston Red Sox vs Oakland A’s (Under 8) – Win
Key Line Move @ 8:25 am EST
Groups were conflicted on this play, there was a lot of well-respected over money that came in late. My team and I loved the under for a few reasons. Boston’s starter Rubby De La Rosa came in for his last start in the rotation for the foreseeable future because Buchholz will be coming back from the disabled list next week. De La Rosa has been pitching well, he only allowed one hit in seven innings his last time out, he will want to leave a good impression for his current team and possibly other teams looking to trade before the deadline. The A’s sent Jesse Chavez who pitched well his last time out, holding the Yankees to one run in six innings. This looked like a quality pitcher’s duel to us from every angle that we looked at it.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies (Over 11) – Win
Key Line Move @ 11:40 am EST
There isn’t too much to write here to back up the over play by the sharps. You all know my position on the Rockies and how I love to play overs when they are home at Coors Field. Now throw the starting pitchers on Saturday afternoon into the equation: the Rockies’ send Christian Friedrich who has been shelled in the minors all year, and the Brewers send Wily Peralta who let eight runs cross the plate in his last game pitching at Coors Field. Both the public and sharps were on the over in this game, 75% of all money. I think bookmakers could have set this at 12 or 12.5 and people still would have hammered the over. There was absolutely nothing about this game that hinted at a game total under 11.