TNF: Dolphins The Favorites Against Bills

It is going to be an interesting clash between two very similar teams on Thursday Night Football as the Miami Dolphins host the Buffalo Bills.

The teams first clashed back in Week 2, and it was the first meeting between the two squads with both having winning records since 2000. This game will be the second time. Back in their first meeting, the Bills beat the Dolphins, 29-10 with home-field advantage. The Bills look different now, though, as both EJ Manuel and CJ Spiller are not going to start. Also, the Dolphins will have the home advantage this time around.

While neither team is in an ideal position, both the Bills and Dolphins have 5-4 records, which sets both up nicely for a potential playoff run. Bettors have seen a similar situation as the Bills are 4-5 against the spread and the Dolphins are 5-4 against the spread. Given both teams winning records are on the line and considering the point we are at in the season, the Dolphins and Bills will both be playing this game like the playoffs are on the line, which should make for a competitive match up.

The success both these teams have experienced comes more on the defensive side of the ball. Both teams are ranked second in the NFL in forced turnovers (19).

The Bills came out of a bye week to lose 17-13 to the Kansas City Chiefs last week. The one-possession loss can be attributed to the Bills failure to get the job done in the red zone. The Bills found themselves near pay dirt four times and failed to punch it in. Buffalo is last in red-zone touchdowns in the league.

With Sammy Watkins playing through a groin injury and Kyle Orton still struggling to find a solid rhythm, the Bills may lean on their group of backs, Fred Jackson, Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown, to turn the tide of their end zone woes.

The Dolphins just can’t seem to get the job done when it matters. Last week the Dolphins lost by four points to the Detroit Lions. It was the third time this season Miami’s defense has seen fourth-quarter points cost them the game.

The Dolphins are 5-point favorites in this game, but the Bills have been playing as underdogs for the majority of the season.. Miami is 11-5 against the spread in their last 16 homes game. The last seven times these AFC East rivals have met the favorites have covered the spread six times.

The total is set at 42.5 points. Buffalo has hit the under in seven of its last nine games. In Miami and Buffalo’s last five meetings the total has hit the under mark four of those times. If those trends are not enough to convince you that the under is the smart bet, Miami’s defense is ranked third in the NFL, while Buffalo’s is ranked fourth.

Kick off is at 8:25 p.m. ET. and you can watch the game on the NFL Network.

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